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Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit

41K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.7%

45%55%
Floor50.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.1%.

Measured over 41K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 41K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
41K
Best context
60.1% at 1800-1999 Bullet
Worst context
39.5% at 1000-1199 Blitz
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
97.5%
Draws
2.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +6.1% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 18.5% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 34.1% at 0-999, 55.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 32.5% expected score (364 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (500 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 36.3% expected score (304 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 37.8% expected score (421 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (683 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (354 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (771 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (1,115 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.0% expected score (441 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 34.3% expected score (24 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (1,458 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (1,726 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (986 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 24.7% expected score (40 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (1,277 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (2,526 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (831 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (38 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 60.1% expected score (3,760 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (3,170 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (317 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 33.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (10,547 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (2,432 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (141 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (4,778 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (921 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (586 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit scores 50.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.3% and 51.1% — from 41K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
41K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit, Black wins 49.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 41K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 55.0% (7.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.2% in Blitz (13K games) against 43.9% in Rapid (3.4K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit?

The Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.5 (very decisive), meaning 97.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 35.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 61.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.7%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 37.5%, draws 2.6% and loses 59.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.8%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.6%, draws 2.2% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 53.8%, draws 2.3% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 52.8%, draws 2.2% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 45.6%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 635 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 52.2%, draws 1.9% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 33.1%, draws 2.5% and loses 64.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 34.4%. It rests on 139 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Brussels Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.4% of its games and loses 48.1%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.