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King's Indian Defense

104 variations · 17M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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3.Nc3
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · Overall

51.1%

45%55%
Floor51.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 17M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 17M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
#35 of 56
Games in this context
17M
Best context
61.8% at 2500+ Rapid
Worst context
43.7% at 1200-1399 UltraBullet
Variations measured
104
Average game length
36 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

White · Overall
#1King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Florentine GambitBest here
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 Bg7 4.e4 d6 5.f4 O-O 6.Nf3 c5 7.d5 e6 8.Be2 exd5 9.e5
Floor 61.9% · 2.9K games
63.3%
#2King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack, Sokolov's Line
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 Bg7 4.e4 d6 5.Nf3 O-O 6.Be2 e5 7.O-O Nc6 8.d5 Ne7 9.b4 Nh5 10.Re1
Floor 59.2% · 11K games
59.9%
#3King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Benko Attack
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 Bg7 4.e4 d6 5.Nf3 O-O 6.Be2 e5 7.O-O Nc6 8.d5 Ne7 9.Ne1 Nd7 10.f3 f5 11.g4
Floor 58.5% · 4.9K games
59.7%
#4King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 Bg7 4.e4 d6 5.Nf3 O-O 6.Be2 e5 7.O-O Nc6 8.d5 Ne7 9.Ne1 Nd7 10.Be3 f5 11.f3 f4 12.Bf2 g5 13.Rc1 Ng6 14.c5
Floor 58.4% · 1.5K games
60.5%
#5King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 Bg7 4.e4 d6 5.Be2 O-O 6.Bg5
Floor 56.9% · 28K games
57.4%
#6King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 Bg7 4.e4 d6 5.Nf3 O-O 6.Be2 e5 7.O-O Nc6 8.d5 Ne7 9.Ne1 Nd7 10.Be3
Floor 56.5% · 24K games
57.0%
#7King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 Bg7 4.e4 d6 5.Nf3 O-O 6.Be2 e5 7.O-O Nc6 8.d5 Ne7 9.Ne1
Floor 55.4% · 71K games
55.7%
#8King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Classical Main Line
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nf3 Bg7 4.g3 O-O 5.Bg2 d6 6.O-O Nbd7 7.Nc3 e5 8.e4 c6 9.h3
Floor 55.3% · 50K games
55.6%
#9King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 Bg7 4.e4 d6 5.Nf3 O-O 6.Be2 e5 7.dxe5
Floor 54.2% · 75K games
54.5%
#10King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nf3 Bg7 4.g3 O-O 5.Bg2 d6 6.O-O c5 7.Nc3
Floor 54.0% · 162K games
54.2%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 42.4% at 0-999, 57.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.6% expected score (181 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (42,907 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (42,656 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (9,687 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 29.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (685 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (160,522 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (159,001 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (36,890 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (351 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.7% expected score (2,561 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (367,100 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (415,206 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (101,291 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (2,113 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (7,303 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (654,707 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (882,387 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (220,977 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (8,515 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (10,544 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (989,614 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (1,510,444 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (363,844 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (17,997 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.2% expected score (6,891 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,290,932 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (2,111,480 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (465,688 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (23,244 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (2,534 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (1,316,251 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,902,938 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (323,760 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (10,441 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.4% expected score (737 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (1,326,426 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (1,175,252 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (120,153 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (2,284 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 52.9% expected score (84 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (483,779 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (147,231 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.8% expected score (5,931 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (168 games)

104 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Florentine Gambit2.9K games
63.3%Floor 61.9%
2
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack, Sokolov's Line11K games
59.9%Floor 59.2%
3
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Benko Attack4.9K games
59.7%Floor 58.5%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit1.5K games
60.5%Floor 58.4%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation28K games
57.4%Floor 56.9%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line24K games
57.0%Floor 56.5%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System71K games
55.7%Floor 55.4%
King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Classical Main Line50K games
55.6%Floor 55.3%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense37K games
54.7%Floor 54.3%
King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto31K games
54.8%Floor 54.3%
King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation67K games
54.5%Floor 54.2%
King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation75K games
54.5%Floor 54.2%
King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line3.5K games
55.4%Floor 54.0%
King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation162K games
54.2%Floor 54.0%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Modern System11K games
54.7%Floor 53.9%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack73K games
54.2%Floor 53.9%
King's Indian Defense: Kramer Variation74K games
54.1%Floor 53.8%
King's Indian Defense: Steiner Attack94K games
54.1%Floor 53.8%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Gligoric-Taimanov System74K games
54.0%Floor 53.7%
King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Bobotsov-Korchnoi-Petrosian Variation70K games
54.0%Floor 53.7%
King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation187K games
53.8%Floor 53.6%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line11K games
54.2%Floor 53.4%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Traditional Line3.5K games
54.6%Floor 53.3%
King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation110K games
53.4%Floor 53.1%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Standard Development179K games
53.2%Floor 53.0%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense31K games
53.5%Floor 53.0%
King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Exchange Line42K games
53.3%Floor 52.9%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Nc6 Defense17K games
53.4%Floor 52.8%
King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Delayed Fianchetto134K games
53.0%Floor 52.8%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Advance Variation25K games
53.3%Floor 52.8%
King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation5.9K games
53.8%Floor 52.8%
King's Indian Defense: Semi-Averbakh System174K games
52.7%Floor 52.5%
King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Hungarian Variation19K games
53.1%Floor 52.5%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation1.0M games
52.5%Floor 52.4%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense104K games
52.6%Floor 52.4%
King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense159K games
52.4%Floor 52.2%
King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense861 games
55.0%Floor 52.2%
King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense381K games
52.3%Floor 52.1%
King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Double Fianchetto Attack13K games
52.8%Floor 52.1%
King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack839K games
51.9%Floor 51.8%
King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation452K games
51.8%Floor 51.7%
King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation9.9K games
52.5%Floor 51.6%
King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack48K games
51.9%Floor 51.5%
King's Indian Defense: Accelerated Averbakh Variation248K games
51.6%Floor 51.4%
King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense142K games
51.6%Floor 51.3%
King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Classical Variation90K games
51.6%Floor 51.3%
King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Uhlmann-Szabo System218K games
51.4%Floor 51.2%
King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Byrne Defense9.9K games
52.0%Floor 51.2%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation2.4K games
52.7%Floor 51.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line838 games
53.8%Floor 51.0%
Every King's Indian Defense variation, by name104
Analyze King's Indian Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense family scores 51.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.1% and 51.2% — from 17M Lichess games across 104 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
17M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense win rate?

Across the King's Indian Defense's 104 variations, White wins 48.9%, draws 4.5% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 17M rated games from Lichess.

How many King's Indian Defense variations are there?

104 King's Indian Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense perform best?

The King's Indian Defense family performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.9% (637K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the King's Indian Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the King's Indian Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.4% in Blitz (8.3M games) against 50.9% in Rapid (1.6M games).

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense?

King's Indian Defense games are 95.5% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 36 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the King's Indian Defense a good opening family?

The King's Indian Defense family is about level overall. Across its games, White wins 48.9% and loses 46.7%. Results differ between its 104 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.