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King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense

142K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.5%

45%55%
Floor48.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.8%.

Measured over 142K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 142K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
142K
Best context
50.8% at 1400-1599 Bullet
Worst context
42.7% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
38 moves
Games that end decisively
95.5%
Draws
4.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 46.5% at 0-999, 40.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (176 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (170 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (891 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (643 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (118 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (2,216 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (2,126 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (424 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (5,082 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (5,867 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (1,143 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.2% expected score (61 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (9,306 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (12,386 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (2,495 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (155 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (13,055 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (20,098 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (3,764 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (209 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (15,723 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (16,222 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (2,956 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (124 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (14,674 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (5,977 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (993 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 36.2% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (4,288 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.3% expected score (461 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 36.3% expected score (24 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense scores 48.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.3% and 48.8% — from 142K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
142K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense win rate?

Playing the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense, Black wins 46.2%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 142K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 54.2% (372 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.1% in Blitz (64K games) against 47.4% in Rapid (12K games).

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 53.4%, draws 1.5% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 372 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.0%, draws 1.5% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 35K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 41.5%, draws 6.5% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 65K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.5%, draws 5.1% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 64K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 44.4%, draws 6.0% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 44.4%, draws 8.6% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 574 Lichess games.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Debrecen Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.2% of its games and loses 49.3%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.