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King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation

910K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.8%

45%55%
Floor50.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.9%.

Measured over 910K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 910K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
910K
Best context
58.0% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
47.6% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
95.9%
Draws
4.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.3% at 0-999, 55.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (2,310 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (1,329 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (212 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (35 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (11,701 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (7,229 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (1,136 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (161 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (30,982 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (23,799 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (3,845 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (97 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.6% expected score (405 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (61,282 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (55,586 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (9,180 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.2% expected score (287 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (470 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (92,885 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (91,092 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (14,659 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (530 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (384 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (112,666 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (101,803 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (15,772 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (492 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (176 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (91,175 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (63,333 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (7,890 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (143 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 34.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (65,131 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (25,617 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (2,065 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.4% expected score (38 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (11,651 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (2,146 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (57 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack
50.0%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation scores 50.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.7% and 50.9% — from 910K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
910K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation win rate?

Playing the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation, White wins 48.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 910K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.0% (14K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.3% in Blitz (372K games) against 51.3% in Rapid (55K games).

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation?

The King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 47.3%, draws 2.5% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.1%, draws 2.4% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 59K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 48.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 127K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 48.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 200K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 48.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 231K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 48.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 163K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 50.7%, draws 5.3% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 93K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.7%, draws 6.6% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 49.7%, draws 2.2% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 48.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 480K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 48.8%, draws 5.0% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 372K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 48.6%, draws 5.4% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 55K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 48.1%, draws 7.8% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.7% of its games and loses 47.1%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.