King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation
588K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.9%.
Measured over 588K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 588K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 588K
- Best context
- 53.5% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Worst context
- 46.3% at 1600-1799 Classical
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.2%
- Draws
- 3.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 46.0% at 0-999, 59.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (2,691 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (1,909 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (264 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (11,495 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (10,565 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (1,713 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (25 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (26,912 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (29,901 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (5,656 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (73 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (53 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (44,786 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (56,611 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (13,147 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (353 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (45 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (55,254 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (74,623 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (17,504 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (628 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (53,903 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (66,696 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (14,257 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (507 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (34,653 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (30,873 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (5,343 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (85 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (16,439 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (7,796 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (982 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (16 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (2,385 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (233 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation scores 49.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.7% and 49.9% — from 588K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 588K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation win rate?
Playing the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation, White wins 47.9%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 588K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation perform best?
The King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 52.3% (2.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.1% in Blitz (279K games) against 49.6% in Rapid (59K games).
How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation?
The King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 47.7%, draws 2.2% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 48.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 49.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 63K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 48.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 115K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 47.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 148K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 47.4%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 135K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 47.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 71K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 47.3%, draws 5.3% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 49.1%, draws 6.3% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 47.7%, draws 0.9% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 165 Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 48.2%, draws 2.7% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 249K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 47.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 279K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 47.1%, draws 5.0% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 59K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 44.6%, draws 6.2% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation a good opening?
The King's Indian Defense: Zinnowitz Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.9% of its games and loses 48.3%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.