Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses

1.6M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
a1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
5.Nf3
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.6%

45%55%
Floor49.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.7%.

Measured over 1.6M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.6M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.6M
Best context
55.8% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
45.6% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
95.8%
Draws
4.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 39.8% at 0-999, 53.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (6,247 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (6,607 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (1,311 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (65 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (22,240 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (25,682 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (5,923 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (45 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (174 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (49,226 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (63,078 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (16,833 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (309 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (447 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (79,951 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (127,090 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (35,691 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (1,343 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (431 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (110,080 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (195,025 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (56,103 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (2,572 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (266 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (130,187 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (218,268 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (60,884 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (2,877 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.6% expected score (124 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (104,121 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (132,510 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (29,474 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (836 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (29 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (69,685 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (50,975 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (6,769 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (155 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (18,720 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (6,053 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 65.8% expected score (255 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack
50.0%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses scores 49.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.5% and 49.7% — from 1.6M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.6M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate?

Playing the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses, White wins 47.5%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 1.6M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.9% (25K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.9% in Blitz (825K games) against 50.2% in Rapid (213K games).

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses?

The King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 45.2%, draws 2.5% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 47.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 54K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 47.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 130K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 47.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 245K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 47.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 364K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 47.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 412K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 47.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 267K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.8%, draws 5.4% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 128K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 51.2%, draws 7.3% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 49.1%, draws 1.5% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 47.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 590K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 47.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 825K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.5%, draws 5.3% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 213K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 47.9%, draws 7.5% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 8.1K Lichess games.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.5% of its games and loses 48.3%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.