3.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Traditional Line has a 45.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.0% and 46.8%), based on 3.5K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 56% → 40%
Best in Rapid (45%), worst in Classical (29%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Traditional Line has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Traditional Line performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.7% win rate for white (1.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (53.8%) outperforms Rapid (49.7%) by 4.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Traditional Line has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Traditional Line has a 41.9% (90% CI: 34.3%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 112 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Traditional Line has a 51.5% (90% CI: 48.1%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 564 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Traditional Line has a 53.0% (90% CI: 50.6%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Traditional Line has a 53.7% (90% CI: 51.4%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Traditional Line has a 52.7% (90% CI: 47.9%-57.6%) win rate for white, based on 282 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Traditional Line has a 53.8% (90% CI: 51.3%-56.2%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Traditional Line has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.4%-53.9%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Traditional Line has a 49.7% (90% CI: 44.3%-55.1%) win rate for white (229 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Traditional Line is statistically favors white with a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.