King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line
24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
57.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 57.5%.
Measured over 24K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 24K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 24K
- Best context
- 60.3% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 54.5% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Average game length
- 40 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.6%
- Draws
- 4.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 46.7% at 1200-1399, 59.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 59.2% expected score (31 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 66.9% expected score (43 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (228 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (313 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (33 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (663 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (1,862 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (192 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (25 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (1,293 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (5,807 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (706 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (31 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (3,421 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (6,508 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (661 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (17 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (1,666 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (640 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.2% expected score (77 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line scores 57.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 56.5% and 57.5% — from 24K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 24K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line win rate?
Playing the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line, White wins 54.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 24K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line perform best?
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 59.0% (2.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 57.0% in Blitz (15K games) against 56.0% in Rapid (1.7K games).
How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line?
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 54.9%, draws 1.6% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 580 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 53.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 54.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 7.8K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 55.3%, draws 4.7% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 56.1%, draws 5.7% and loses 38.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.0%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 55.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 54.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 52.5%, draws 7.0% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line a good opening?
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 54.8% of its games and loses 40.8%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.