24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line has a 57.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 56.5% and 57.5%), based on 24K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 43% → 56%
Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Rapid (53%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line has a 54.8% (90% CI: 54.3%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 24K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 55.3% win rate for white (11K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (55.3%) outperforms Classical (57.1%) by -1.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line has a 54.9% (90% CI: 51.5%-58.3%) win rate for white, based on 580 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line has a 53.5% (90% CI: 51.9%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line has a 54.2% (90% CI: 53.2%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 7.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line has a 55.3% (90% CI: 54.5%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line has a 56.1% (90% CI: 54.4%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line has a 55.3% (90% CI: 54.4%-56.3%) win rate for white (7.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line has a 54.8% (90% CI: 54.1%-55.5%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line has a 52.5% (90% CI: 50.5%-54.5%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line is statistically favors white with a 54.8% (90% CI: 54.3%-55.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.