861 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense has a 55.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.2% and 57.8%), based on 861 Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 20% → 53%
Best in Rapid (55%), worst in Classical (33%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense has a 51.7% (90% CI: 48.9%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 861 rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 56.0% win rate for white (464 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (52.6%) outperforms Bullet (48.7%) by 3.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense has a sharpness score of 93.3 (decisive), meaning 93.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense has a 44.7% (90% CI: 38.7%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 181 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 9.0% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense has a 56.0% (90% CI: 52.2%-59.7%) win rate for white, based on 464 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 45.6%-60.4%) win rate for white, based on 122 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense has a 48.7% (90% CI: 43.0%-54.4%) win rate for white (207 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense has a 52.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-55.9%) win rate for white (595 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.
The King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense is statistically favors white with a 51.7% (90% CI: 48.9%-54.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.