King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense
861 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
55.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 57.8%.
Measured over 861 games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 6.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 861 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 861
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 39 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.3%
- Draws
- 6.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 50.0% at 1000-1199, 56.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (38 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 37.2% expected score (18 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (145 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 82.3% expected score (14 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (101 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.8% expected score (341 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (71 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (51 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense scores 55.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.2% and 57.8% — from 861 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 861+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense win rate?
Playing the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense, White wins 51.7%, draws 6.7% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 861 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense perform best?
The King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 59.1% (464 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 56.1% in Blitz (595 games) against 60.7% in Rapid (50 games).
How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense?
The King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense has a sharpness score of 93.3 (decisive), meaning 93.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 44.7%, draws 9.0% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 181 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 56.0%, draws 6.1% and loses 37.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.1%. It rests on 464 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 53.0%, draws 6.9% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 122 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 48.7%, draws 5.0% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 207 Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 52.6%, draws 7.0% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 595 Lichess games.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense a good opening?
The King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Keres Defense is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.7% of its games and loses 41.7%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.