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King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line

553 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.2%Range (90% confident): 42.8% – 49.7%Based on 553 games
0%46.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 42.8% – 49.7%
Outcome Distribution
43.7%5.0%51.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...c6
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line
Analyzen=553
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.0%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line has a 46.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 42.8% and 49.7%), based on 553 Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 43%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1200-1399: 29.4% win rate (7 games)
  • 1400-1599: 26.3% win rate (8 games)
  • 1600-1799: 54.4% win rate (27 games)
  • 1800-1999: 36.5% win rate (41 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.0% win rate (121 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.3% win rate (293 games)
  • 2500+: 43.4% win rate (55 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (66%), worst in Bullet (38%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid

  • Bullet: 37.8% win rate (95 games)
  • Blitz: 43.9% win rate (439 games)
  • Rapid: 65.9% win rate (19 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199————
1200-1399———
1400-1599——
1600-1799——
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 38.2% expected score (28 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 36.5% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (96 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 76.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (33 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (255 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 38.6% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (39 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line has a 51.3% (90% CI: 47.8%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 553 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 52.7% win rate for white (121 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (58.5%) outperforms Blitz (50.7%) by 7.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line has a 52.7% (90% CI: 45.2%-60.0%) win rate for white, based on 121 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line has a 49.7% (90% CI: 45.0%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 293 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line has a 50.7% (90% CI: 46.8%-54.7%) win rate for white (439 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line is statistically balanced with a 51.3% (90% CI: 47.8%-54.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.