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King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense

381K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.8%Range (90% confident): 47.7% – 47.9%Based on 381K games
0%47.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.7% – 47.9%
Outcome Distribution
45.8%3.9%50.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...O-O
King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense
Analyzen=381K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense has a 47.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.7% and 47.9%), based on 381K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 16.0% · Bullet best · UltraBullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.1% win rate (943 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.1% win rate (3,528 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.0% win rate (9,152 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.7% win rate (25,200 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.0% win rate (56,831 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.2% win rate (108,246 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.1% win rate (110,552 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.5% win rate (58,647 games)
  • 2500+: 43.3% win rate (7,508 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (63%), worst in Rapid (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 63.0% win rate (120 games)
  • Bullet: 46.2% win rate (150,737 games)
  • Blitz: 45.6% win rate (196,308 games)
  • Rapid: 44.9% win rate (32,133 games)
  • Classical: 45.4% win rate (1,309 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (417 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (423 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (103 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (1,999 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (1,251 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (272 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 63.6% expected score (28 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (4,242 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (4,045 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (810 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 67.3% expected score (39 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (11,018 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (12,018 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2,028 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (97 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (21,748 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (29,352 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (5,405 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (299 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 82.3% expected score (14 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (34,803 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (62,364 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (10,551 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (514 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (39,540 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (60,813 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (9,881 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (313 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (31,276 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (24,335 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (2,979 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (56 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (5,694 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (1,707 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 31.1% expected score (104 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 381K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 50.4% win rate for white (111K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (35.0%) by 16.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense?

The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense has a 45.9% (90% CI: 43.2%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 943 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.1%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 9.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 57K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 108K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 111K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 59K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 7.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense has a 35.0% (90% CI: 28.0%-42.2%) win rate for white (120 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.2%) win rate for white (151K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.0%) win rate for white (196K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.2%) win rate for white (32K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 45.7%-50.2%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Normal Defense is statistically favors white with a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.