King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense
70K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.8%.
Measured over 70K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 70K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 70K
- Best context
- 60.9% at 1600-1799 Rapid
- Worst context
- 42.2% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 39 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.5%
- Draws
- 5.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 64.8% at 0-999, 40.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (50 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (40 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (12 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (125 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 59.2% expected score (200 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 68.1% expected score (54 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (372 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (914 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 63.5% expected score (269 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (694 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (3,173 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 60.9% expected score (821 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (78 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (1,440 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (7,803 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.8% expected score (2,177 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.9% expected score (233 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (2,277 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (14,239 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (2,725 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (211 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (5,187 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (16,982 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (1,733 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (37 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (3,752 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (4,336 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 33.4% expected score (110 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense scores 50.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.2% and 50.8% — from 70K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 70K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense win rate?
Playing the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense, Black wins 47.7%, draws 5.5% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 70K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense perform best?
The King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 58.3% (4.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 50.2% in Blitz (48K games) against 55.3% in Rapid (7.9K games).
How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense?
The King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 56.5%, draws 2.4% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 102 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 57.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 39.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.2%. It rests on 380 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 55.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.8%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 56.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 39.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 53.6%, draws 4.2% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.4%, draws 6.1% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.8%, draws 7.2% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.2%, draws 5.8% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 48K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 52.0%, draws 6.7% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 50.0%, draws 8.8% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 573 Lichess games.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense a good opening?
The King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Stein Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.7% of its games and loses 46.7%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.