King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation
187K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.0%.
Measured over 187K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 187K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 187K
- Best context
- 59.0% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Worst context
- 49.0% at 1000-1199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.8%
- Draws
- 4.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.0% at 0-999, 62.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (173 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (139 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (33 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (796 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (595 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (137 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (1,904 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (1,795 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (387 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (4,633 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (5,468 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (972 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 64.6% expected score (43 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (9,621 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (13,834 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (2,698 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (170 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (14,849 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (29,644 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (5,456 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (296 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (17,514 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (33,112 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (5,761 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.2% expected score (189 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (15,132 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (15,310 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.0% expected score (2,039 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (27 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (2,744 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (1,302 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (42 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation scores 53.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.6% and 54.0% — from 187K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 187K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate?
Playing the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, White wins 51.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 187K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation perform best?
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.5% (4.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.9% in Blitz (101K games) against 54.1% in Rapid (18K games).
How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation?
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 52.2%, draws 1.6% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 346 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 49.6%, draws 2.4% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 52.1%, draws 1.9% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 51.8%, draws 2.6% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 51.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 51.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 50K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 51.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 57K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 52.7%, draws 5.3% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 53.4%, draws 6.2% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 52.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 67K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 51.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 101K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 51.2%, draws 5.7% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 51.2%, draws 7.9% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 738 Lichess games.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation a good opening?
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.7% of its games and loses 44.1%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.