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King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense

2.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score51.6%Range (90% confident): 49.8% – 53.3%Based on 2.2K games
0%51.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.8% – 53.3%
Outcome Distribution
49.2%4.8%46.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...a6
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense
Analyzen=2.2K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.8%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 51.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.8% and 53.3%), based on 2.2K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1000-1199: 63.0% win rate (12 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.5% win rate (68 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.7% win rate (169 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.6% win rate (264 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.6% win rate (460 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.3% win rate (414 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.9% win rate (621 games)
  • 2500+: 53.1% win rate (203 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (50%), worst in Classical (24%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 48.6% win rate (493 games)
  • Blitz: 50.0% win rate (1,495 games)
  • Rapid: 45.3% win rate (216 games)
  • Classical: 23.8% win rate (9 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 37.7% expected score (27 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (37 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (106 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 40.8% expected score (53 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (168 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (42 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (102 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (290 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (60 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (84 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (276 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (54 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (78 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (504 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (39 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (95 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (107 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.3%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 48.9% win rate for white (460 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.7%) outperforms Blitz (44.4%) by 7.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 44.9% (90% CI: 38.7%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 169 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 44.5%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 264 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 45.0%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 460 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 46.8% (90% CI: 42.8%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 414 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 44.6% (90% CI: 41.3%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 621 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 40.3% (90% CI: 34.8%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 203 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 47.8% (90% CI: 44.1%-51.5%) win rate for white (493 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 44.4% (90% CI: 42.3%-46.5%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 51.7% (90% CI: 46.2%-57.3%) win rate for white (216 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense is slightly favors black with a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.3%-47.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.