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King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation

124K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.9%Range (90% confident): 49.6% – 50.1%Based on 124K games
0%49.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.6% – 50.1%
Outcome Distribution
47.6%4.5%47.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Nc6
King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation
Analyzen=124K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.5%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation has a 49.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.6% and 50.1%), based on 124K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.4% · UltraBullet best · Rapid worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.0% win rate (582 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.3% win rate (2,250 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.2% win rate (6,107 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.1% win rate (12,232 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.5% win rate (21,623 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.2% win rate (29,048 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.5% win rate (26,511 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.9% win rate (21,312 games)
  • 2500+: 43.6% win rate (4,778 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (48%), worst in UltraBullet (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 39.7% win rate (156 games)
  • Bullet: 47.6% win rate (74,034 games)
  • Blitz: 47.6% win rate (43,926 games)
  • Rapid: 47.5% win rate (6,144 games)
  • Classical: 44.7% win rate (183 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (257 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (266 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 64.7% expected score (53 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (1,058 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (999 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (185 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (3,207 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (2,474 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (406 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (42 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (5,918 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (5,262 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (983 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 32.5% expected score (27 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 36.5% expected score (54 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (10,770 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (9,249 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (1,492 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (58 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (15,083 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (12,054 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (1,824 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (68 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (16,557 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (8,931 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (995 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (16,744 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (4,358 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (201 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (4,440 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (333 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 124K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 48.8% win rate for white (21K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (58.1%) outperforms Classical (47.4%) by 10.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation?

The King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 41.8%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 582 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 47.8%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.9%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation has a 58.1% (90% CI: 51.6%-64.5%) win rate for white (156 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.9%) win rate for white (74K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.4%) win rate for white (44K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.7%-47.8%) win rate for white (6.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 41.4%-53.5%) win rate for white (183 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.9%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Hollywood Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.