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King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense

37K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.3%Range (90% confident): 44.9% – 45.7%Based on 37K games
0%45.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.9% – 45.7%
Outcome Distribution
42.7%5.2%52.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...h6
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense
Analyzen=37K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.2%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense has a 45.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.9% and 45.7%), based on 37K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 33% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 33.3% win rate (12 games)
  • 1000-1199: 40.8% win rate (105 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.0% win rate (539 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.3% win rate (1,260 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.7% win rate (2,939 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.6% win rate (7,021 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.5% win rate (11,847 games)
  • 2200-2499: 40.2% win rate (11,028 games)
  • 2500+: 41.7% win rate (1,788 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (43%), worst in Classical (38%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 43.1% win rate (8,306 games)
  • Blitz: 42.6% win rate (24,172 games)
  • Rapid: 42.9% win rate (3,827 games)
  • Classical: 38.3% win rate (232 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (60 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 35.3% expected score (36 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (262 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (244 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (431 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (671 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (148 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (731 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (1,745 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (432 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (31 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (1,387 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (4,670 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (852 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (112 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (1,975 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (8,284 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (1,524 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.1% expected score (64 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (2,219 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (7,983 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (811 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 37.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (1,235 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (533 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (20 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 37K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.3% win rate for white (11K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.6%) outperforms Classical (53.3%) by 0.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense has a 57.7% (90% CI: 49.8%-65.5%) win rate for white, based on 105 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense has a 54.7% (90% CI: 51.1%-58.2%) win rate for white, based on 539 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 48.4%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense has a 51.7% (90% CI: 50.2%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.2%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.5%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.5%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 49.7%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.7%-54.5%) win rate for white (8.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.3%) win rate for white (24K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.5%-52.1%) win rate for white (3.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense has a 53.3% (90% CI: 47.9%-58.7%) win rate for white (232 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Flexible Defense is statistically favors white with a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.