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King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line

110K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.9%

40%55%
Floor47.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.1%.

Measured over 110K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 110K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
110K
Best context
53.9% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
45.1% at 1200-1399 Bullet
Average game length
37 moves
Games that end decisively
95.4%
Draws
4.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 46.9% at 0-999, 55.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (122 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (116 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (485 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (475 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 36.3% expected score (90 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (1,057 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (1,553 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (398 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (2,195 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (4,411 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (1,168 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (57 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (3,327 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (9,622 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (2,684 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.8% expected score (224 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (5,204 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (16,477 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (4,626 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (334 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (6,640 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (18,477 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (3,692 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (156 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (10,552 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (10,233 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (1,377 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (3,581 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (946 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.8% expected score (19 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line scores 47.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.6% and 48.1% — from 110K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
110K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate?

Playing the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line, White wins 45.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 110K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 53.4% (4.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.0% in Blitz (62K games) against 47.4% in Rapid (14K games).

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 43.2%, draws 1.7% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 261 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 44.6%, draws 2.4% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 44.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 45.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 7.8K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 44.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 44.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 45.5%, draws 5.2% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 46.8%, draws 5.6% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 50.6%, draws 5.5% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 46.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 33K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 45.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 62K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 44.4%, draws 5.9% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 40.5%, draws 6.7% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 808 Lichess games.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 45.6% of its games and loses 49.9%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.