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King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation

110K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.4%

45%60%
Floor53.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.6%.

Measured over 110K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 110K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
110K
Best context
58.1% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
51.7% at 1600-1799 Rapid
Average game length
37 moves
Games that end decisively
95.3%
Draws
4.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 59.0% at 0-999, 56.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 67.3% expected score (74 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (323 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (223 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (37 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (635 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (665 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (162 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (1,466 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (2,317 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (522 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 71.2% expected score (34 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (3,147 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (6,709 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (1,560 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (120 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (6,144 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (17,294 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (3,641 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (260 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (8,864 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (23,743 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (4,002 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (163 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (9,528 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (12,191 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (1,626 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.9% expected score (26 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (3,255 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (766 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.1% expected score (57 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Continuations (1)
King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line
53.0%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation scores 53.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.1% and 53.6% — from 110K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
110K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation win rate?

Playing the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation, White wins 51.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 110K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation performs best for White at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 61.5% (138 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.3% in Blitz (64K games) against 53.6% in Rapid (12K games).

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation?

The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 59.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 36.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.5%. It rests on 138 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 55.7%, draws 1.8% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 588 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 53.7%, draws 2.0% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 53.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.3%, draws 4.4% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.5%, draws 5.0% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.3%, draws 5.6% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.5%, draws 6.0% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 33K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.7%, draws 5.0% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 64K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 50.4%, draws 6.3% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 46.4%, draws 10.5% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 612 Lichess games.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.0% of its games and loses 44.3%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.