254 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Ruban Variation has a 51.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.5% and 56.7%), based on 254 Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 43% → 21%
Best in Rapid (74%), worst in Blitz (46%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Ruban Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 40.1%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 254 rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Ruban Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.7% win rate for white (108 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (47.5%) outperforms Bullet (42.9%) by 4.6%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Ruban Variation has a sharpness score of 93.5 (decisive), meaning 93.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Ruban Variation has a 39.1% (90% CI: 31.4%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 102 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Ruban Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 42.8%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 108 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Ruban Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 41.5%-53.5%) win rate for white (185 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Ruban Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.2% (90% CI: 40.1%-50.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.