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King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense

2.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.3%Range (90% confident): 46.7% – 49.9%Based on 2.6K games
0%48.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.7% – 49.9%
Outcome Distribution
46.2%4.2%49.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Na6
King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense
Analyzen=2.6K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense has a 48.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.7% and 49.9%), based on 2.6K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 26% → 46%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 26.3% win rate (8 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.9% win rate (9 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.2% win rate (30 games)
  • 1400-1599: 39.7% win rate (113 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.4% win rate (338 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.7% win rate (811 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.1% win rate (896 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.3% win rate (392 games)
  • 2500+: 46.1% win rate (43 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (47%), worst in Classical (26%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 45.2% win rate (712 games)
  • Blitz: 47.1% win rate (1,622 games)
  • Rapid: 44.2% win rate (298 games)
  • Classical: 26.3% win rate (8 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 62.7% expected score (30 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 28.9% expected score (67 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (125 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (178 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (166 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (528 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (114 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (197 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (590 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (107 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (136 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (231 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 54.5% win rate for white (392 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.2%) outperforms Rapid (50.6%) by 0.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense?

The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense has a 56.3% (90% CI: 48.7%-63.9%) win rate for white, based on 113 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense has a 45.5% (90% CI: 41.1%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 338 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense has a 46.1% (90% CI: 43.2%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 811 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense has a 51.0% (90% CI: 48.2%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 896 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense has a 54.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-58.6%) win rate for white, based on 392 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 48.1%-54.3%) win rate for white (712 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense has a 48.5% (90% CI: 46.5%-50.5%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 45.8%-55.3%) win rate for white (298 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense is statistically balanced with a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.0%-51.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.