King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense
2.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.9%.
Measured over 2.6K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.6K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.6K
- Best context
- 53.0% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 48.9% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.8%
- Draws
- 4.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 38.5% at 0-999, 49.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 62.7% expected score (30 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 28.9% expected score (67 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (125 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (178 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (32 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (166 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (528 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (114 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (197 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (590 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (107 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (136 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (231 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (30 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense scores 48.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.7% and 49.9% — from 2.6K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.6K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense win rate?
Playing the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense, Black wins 46.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 2.6K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense perform best?
The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 51.8% (811 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.3% in Blitz (1.6K games) against 46.8% in Rapid (298 games).
How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense?
The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 39.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 56.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.7%. It rests on 113 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 51.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 338 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 811 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.1%, draws 5.0% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 896 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.3%, draws 4.2% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 392 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 712 Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.1%, draws 4.4% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.2%, draws 5.2% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 298 Lichess games.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense a good opening?
The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Modern Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.2% of its games and loses 49.6%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.