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Grünfeld Defense

Moves

Black scores

49.8%

About even
Loses moreEvenWins more

46.9% won5.7% drawn47.4% lost

Theory 46.4% · Stockfish +0.4

Every level and clock · 5.1M games

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3...d5
Analyze this line

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<100010001200140016001800200022002500+

Win rate by rating

Black’s score falls away as the rating rises.

RatingScore against evenScoreWonGames
51.4%50.1%17K
49.9%48.5%66K
50.0%48.5%173K
50.6%48.8%402K
50.9%48.7%808K
50.9%48.2%1.3M
49.8%46.6%1.3M
47.6%43.9%886K
45.4%39.8%193K

Every clock · Tap a row to set your level.

What does White play next?

White's most played reply is 4.Nf3, the Three Knights Variation.

Is the Grünfeld Defense good?

Even for Black, across every level and clock.

Everyone49.8
Stockfish46.4

Stockfish at depth 22 · +0.4 for White

Floor 49.7 is the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

Among the families

8th of 65 families Black can choose

Where it wins · rating × clock

<100010001200140016001800200022002500+Every levelUltraBulletBulletBlitzRapidClassical
Best 54.7% · 1400–1599 classicalWorst 41.6% · 2200–2499 classical

Faint, hatched: few games, never the best or worst. –: too few to score. Tap a cell to set your level and clock.

Average game length

How do you score in your own openings?

Leaks reads your recent games and lists the openings you score worst in.

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More Grünfeld Defense lines

Most played first; each line counts its own games.

All 48 Grünfeld Defense lines, ranked

48 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation144K games
52.3%Floor 52.1%
2
Grünfeld Defense: Gibbon Gambit1.4K games
54.2%Floor 52.0%
3
Grünfeld Defense427K games
52.0%Floor 51.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit44K games
51.9%Floor 51.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation9.5K games
52.2%Floor 51.3%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation10K games
51.7%Floor 50.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation679K games
50.8%Floor 50.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch70K games
51.0%Floor 50.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation140K games
50.7%Floor 50.4%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation665K games
50.4%Floor 50.3%
Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation34K games
50.4%Floor 49.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation568K games
49.7%Floor 49.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Smyslov Defense47K games
49.9%Floor 49.5%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation2.1K games
51.1%Floor 49.3%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation8.3K games
50.1%Floor 49.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Stockholm Variation338K games
49.3%Floor 49.1%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Hungarian Variation272K games
49.2%Floor 49.1%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation433K games
49.0%Floor 48.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation165K games
49.1%Floor 48.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Lutikov Variation49K games
49.2%Floor 48.8%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Kramnik's Line24K games
49.3%Floor 48.8%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation14K games
49.2%Floor 48.5%
Grünfeld Defense: Flohr Defense3.3K games
49.8%Floor 48.4%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System509K games
48.3%Floor 48.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation4.3K games
49.4%Floor 48.1%
Grünfeld Defense: Zaitsev Gambit17K games
48.7%Floor 48.1%
Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation5.4K games
49.1%Floor 48.0%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Prins Variation5.1K games
49.1%Floor 47.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack104K games
47.9%Floor 47.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation19K games
48.2%Floor 47.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Larsen Variation306 games
52.1%Floor 47.4%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Hungarian Attack135K games
47.6%Floor 47.4%
Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation22K games
47.8%Floor 47.3%
Grünfeld Defense: Flohr Variation3.6K games
48.5%Floor 47.1%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation4.2K games
48.0%Floor 46.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Botvinnik Variation503 games
50.2%Floor 46.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation29K games
46.1%Floor 45.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation12K games
46.3%Floor 45.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack14K games
46.2%Floor 45.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation7.9K games
46.5%Floor 45.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation52K games
45.8%Floor 45.5%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Levenfish Variation2.4K games
46.4%Floor 44.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation7.6K games
45.5%Floor 44.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit Accepted6.3K games
43.2%Floor 42.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Reshevsky Gambit3.5K games
40.8%Floor 39.5%
Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation646 games
41.3%Floor 38.1%
Grünfeld Defense: Pachman Variation517 games
36.9%Floor 33.5%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Pawn Grab Line9.9K games
31.3%Floor 30.6%
Analyze the Grünfeld DefenseSee which move scores best at your level, one move at a time

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Methodology

Across every level and clock, the Grünfeld Defense family scores 49.8% for Black, with a range running from 49.7% to 49.8% around that figure, from 5.1M rated Lichess games across 48 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played September 2023 to August 2026.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
5.1M rated games played on Lichess (2023-09 to 2026-08). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt September 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
What the Floor and Edge at worst are
The Floor is the worst score you would still get, 90% confident: the low end of a figure’s range, not its average. Edge at worst is how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident, so above zero, that side wins more than it loses even on a bad day. Each is stated for the rating and clock shown, over the games that reached the position. They are on different scales: a score sits at 50 when the sides are level, an edge at zero.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A figure on it needs 100 games at its rating and clock: short of that the answer reads a wider scope and says so, a table row shows only its count, and a map cell shows a dash. Under 1.0K games a figure is drawn faint, and never leads a list or counts as the best or worst place the line wins. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.