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Grünfeld Defense

48 variations · 3.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Grünfeld Defense is balanced for White at 50.3% expected score.

This opening produces roughly even results, with outcomes depending more on middlegame play than opening choice.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 50.2% – 50.3%Aggregated from 48 variations
0%50.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.2% – 50.3%
ContextOverall · n=3.5M
Outcome Distribution
47.4%5.7%46.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...d5
Grünfeld Defense
Variations48
Games (Context)3.5M
Avg Length36 moves
Draw Rate5.7%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall

#1Grünfeld Defense: Pachman VariationTop Pick
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 d5 4.e3 Bg7 5.Qb3 dxc4 6.Bxc4 O-O 7.Nf3 Nbd7 8.Ng5
Min adv +17.6% · n=351
63.1%
#2Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit Accepted
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 d5 4.Bf4 Bg7 5.e3 O-O 6.cxd5 Nxd5 7.Nxd5 Qxd5 8.Bxc7
Min adv +10.5% · n=4.3K
56.5%
#3Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 d5 4.Nf3 Bg7 5.Qb3
Min adv +6.9% · n=35K
53.9%
#4Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 d5 4.cxd5 Nxd5 5.Na4
Min adv +6.8% · n=9.4K
54.2%
#5Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 d5 4.Nf3 Bg7 5.e3 O-O 6.Qb3
Min adv +6.3% · n=19K
53.8%
#6Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 d5 4.Bf4 Bg7 5.e3 O-O 6.Rc1
Min adv +6.2% · n=5.1K
54.3%
#7Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 d5 4.Nf3 Bg7 5.e3 O-O 6.b4
Min adv +5.9% · n=5.4K
54.1%
#8Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Hungarian Attack
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 d5 4.Nf3 Bg7 5.Bf4
Min adv +4.0% · n=91K
52.3%
#9Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 d5 4.Bf4
Min adv +3.4% · n=70K
52.1%
#10Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 d5 4.Nf3 Bg7 5.Bg5
Min adv +3.1% · n=344K
51.7%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

What is the Grünfeld Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

Overall, the Grünfeld Defense family has a 50.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.2% and 50.3%), aggregated from 48 variations and 3.5M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 49%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.1% win rate (11,031 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.0% win rate (43,668 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.6% win rate (115,096 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.7% win rate (266,814 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.1% win rate (538,064 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.5% win rate (871,437 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.0% win rate (871,955 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.7% win rate (601,872 games)
  • 2500+: 49.2% win rate (130,279 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (49%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.3% win rate (2,987 games)
  • Bullet: 48.2% win rate (1,219,792 games)
  • Blitz: 47.2% win rate (1,871,336 games)
  • Rapid: 45.7% win rate (340,983 games)
  • Classical: 42.5% win rate (15,118 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (4,567 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (5,330 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (1,106 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.7% expected score (62 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (19,285 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (19,881 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (4,398 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (42 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.4% expected score (240 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (47,915 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (53,941 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (12,732 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (268 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.2% expected score (654 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (98,776 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (135,331 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (30,836 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (1,217 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.7% expected score (956 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (172,066 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (299,779 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (61,716 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (3,547 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (710 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (247,177 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (513,946 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (103,609 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (5,995 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (274 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (278,386 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (500,545 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (89,572 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (3,178 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (60 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (262,232 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (304,420 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (34,447 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (713 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (89,388 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (38,163 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (2,567 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (155 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (48)

1
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Pawn Grab Line6.7K games
69.1%
2
Grünfeld Defense: Pachman Variation351 games
63.1%
3
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Reshevsky Gambit2.3K games
59.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit Accepted4.3K games
56.5%
Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation443 games
58.4%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation35K games
53.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack9.4K games
54.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation19K games
53.8%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation5.1K games
54.3%
Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation5.4K games
54.1%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation8.3K games
53.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Hungarian Attack91K games
52.3%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack70K games
52.1%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System344K games
51.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation15K games
52.0%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation291K games
51.0%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation12K games
51.5%
Grünfeld Defense: Stockholm Variation228K games
50.8%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation2.8K games
52.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Hungarian Variation183K games
50.8%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation112K games
50.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Levenfish Variation1.6K games
52.5%
Grünfeld Defense: Lutikov Variation33K games
50.8%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Kramnik's Line16K games
50.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation386K games
50.4%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation9.0K games
51.1%
Grünfeld Defense: Zaitsev Gambit12K games
50.8%
Grünfeld Defense: Flohr Variation2.6K games
51.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Prins Variation3.5K games
51.4%
Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation3.7K games
50.8%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation444K games
49.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation23K games
49.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Smyslov Defense32K games
49.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation2.9K games
50.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation94K games
49.4%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation455K games
49.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch47K games
49.1%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation5.7K games
49.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Flohr Defense2.2K games
50.1%
Grünfeld Defense288K games
48.1%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit30K games
48.3%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation98K games
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation7.0K games
48.4%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation6.4K games
47.8%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation1.4K games
48.1%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Botvinnik Variation335 games
49.3%
Grünfeld Defense: Gibbon Gambit1.0K games
46.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Larsen Variation220 games
49.4%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense family has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.4%) win rate for white, aggregated from 48 variations and 3.5M rated games from Lichess.

How many Grünfeld Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 48 Grünfeld Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense family performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 49.2% win rate for white (130K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Grünfeld Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.2%) outperforms Classical (42.5%) by 5.7% across all Grünfeld Defense variations.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense?

Grünfeld Defense games are 94.3% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 36 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Grünfeld Defense a good opening family?

The Grünfeld Defense family is statistically balanced overall with a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.4%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 48 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.