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Grünfeld Defense

48 variations · 3.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

49.8%

45%55%
Floor49.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 3.5M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.5M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
#9 of 62
Games in this context
3.5M
Best context
54.0% at 0-999 Rapid
Worst context
41.8% at 2200-2499 Classical
Variations measured
48
Average game length
36 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall
#1Grünfeld DefenseBest here
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 d5
Floor 51.8% · 288K games
52.0%
#2Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 d5 4.Bf4 Bg7 5.e3 O-O
Floor 51.3% · 30K games
51.8%
#3Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 d5 4.cxd5 Nxd5
Floor 50.7% · 455K games
50.9%
#4Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 d5 4.Nf3 Bg7 5.Qb3 dxc4 6.Qxc4 O-O 7.e4 Nc6
Floor 50.6% · 7.0K games
51.6%
#5Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 c5 3.e3 g6 4.Nc3 Bg7 5.Nf3 O-O 6.Be2 cxd4 7.exd4 d5 8.O-O Nc6
Floor 50.5% · 47K games
50.9%
#6Grünfeld Defense: Smyslov Defense
1.d4 d5 2.c4 c6 3.Nc3 Nf6 4.e3 g6 5.Nf3 Bg7 6.Bd3 O-O 7.O-O Bg4
Floor 50.0% · 32K games
50.4%
#7Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 d5 4.cxd5 Nxd5 5.e4 Nxc3 6.bxc3 Bg7 7.Bc4 O-O 8.Ne2 b6
Floor 49.8% · 1.4K games
51.9%
#8Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 d5 4.cxd5 Nxd5 5.e4 Nxc3 6.bxc3 Bg7 7.Bc4 c5 8.Ne2 O-O
Floor 48.9% · 112K games
49.2%
#9Grünfeld Defense: Flohr Defense
1.d4 d5 2.c4 c6 3.Nc3 Nf6 4.e3 g6 5.Nf3 Bg7 6.Bd3 O-O 7.O-O Bf5
Floor 48.3% · 2.2K games
50.0%
#10Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 d5 4.Nf3 Bg7 5.Qb3 dxc4 6.Qxc4 O-O 7.e4 a6
Floor 48.1% · 9.0K games
49.0%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.7% at 0-999, 45.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (4,567 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (5,330 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (1,106 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (62 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (19,285 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (19,881 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (4,398 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (42 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (240 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (47,915 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (53,941 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (12,732 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (268 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (654 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (98,776 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (135,331 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (30,836 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (1,217 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.4% expected score (956 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (172,066 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (299,779 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (61,716 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (3,547 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (710 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (247,177 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (513,946 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (103,609 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (5,995 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (274 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (278,386 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (500,545 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (89,572 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (3,178 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (60 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (262,232 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (304,420 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (34,447 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (713 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (89,388 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (38,163 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (2,567 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (155 games)

48 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation98K games
52.3%Floor 52.1%
2
Grünfeld Defense288K games
52.0%Floor 51.8%
3
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit30K games
51.8%Floor 51.3%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation6.4K games
52.2%Floor 51.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation455K games
50.9%Floor 50.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation7.0K games
51.6%Floor 50.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Gibbon Gambit1.0K games
53.2%Floor 50.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch47K games
50.9%Floor 50.5%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation94K games
50.6%Floor 50.3%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation444K games
50.4%Floor 50.3%
Grünfeld Defense: Smyslov Defense32K games
50.4%Floor 50.0%
Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation23K games
50.3%Floor 49.8%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation1.4K games
51.9%Floor 49.8%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation386K games
49.7%Floor 49.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation5.7K games
50.5%Floor 49.4%
Grünfeld Defense: Stockholm Variation228K games
49.2%Floor 49.1%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Hungarian Variation183K games
49.2%Floor 49.1%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation291K games
49.0%Floor 48.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation112K games
49.2%Floor 48.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Lutikov Variation33K games
49.3%Floor 48.8%
Grünfeld Defense: Zaitsev Gambit12K games
49.3%Floor 48.5%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Kramnik's Line16K games
49.1%Floor 48.4%
Grünfeld Defense: Flohr Defense2.2K games
50.0%Floor 48.3%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System344K games
48.3%Floor 48.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation9.0K games
49.0%Floor 48.1%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation2.9K games
49.4%Floor 47.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation3.7K games
49.2%Floor 47.8%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation12K games
48.5%Floor 47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack70K games
48.0%Floor 47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Hungarian Attack91K games
47.7%Floor 47.4%
Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation15K games
48.0%Floor 47.4%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Prins Variation3.5K games
48.7%Floor 47.3%
Grünfeld Defense: Flohr Variation2.6K games
48.4%Floor 46.8%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation2.8K games
47.9%Floor 46.3%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Botvinnik Variation335 games
50.8%Floor 46.3%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation35K games
46.1%Floor 45.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation19K games
46.3%Floor 45.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation8.3K games
46.3%Floor 45.5%
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Levenfish Variation1.6K games
47.5%Floor 45.5%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Larsen Variation220 games
50.7%Floor 45.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack9.4K games
45.8%Floor 45.0%
Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation5.4K games
46.0%Floor 44.8%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation5.1K games
45.8%Floor 44.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit Accepted4.3K games
43.6%Floor 42.3%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Reshevsky Gambit2.3K games
40.4%Floor 38.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation443 games
41.7%Floor 37.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Pachman Variation351 games
37.0%Floor 32.8%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Pawn Grab Line6.7K games
31.0%Floor 30.0%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Grünfeld Defense family scores 49.8% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 49.8% — from 3.5M Lichess games across 48 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
3.5M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense win rate?

Across the Grünfeld Defense's 48 variations, Black wins 46.9%, draws 5.7% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 3.5M rated games from Lichess.

How many Grünfeld Defense variations are there?

48 Grünfeld Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense family performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 51.7% (11K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Grünfeld Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Grünfeld Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 49.6% in Blitz (1.9M games) against 50.6% in Rapid (341K games).

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense?

Grünfeld Defense games are 94.3% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 36 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Grünfeld Defense a good opening family?

The Grünfeld Defense family is about level overall. Across its games, Black wins 46.9% and loses 47.4%. Results differ between its 48 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.