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Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation

6.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score47.8%Range (90% confident): 46.8% – 48.8%Based on 6.4K games
0%47.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.8% – 48.8%
Outcome Distribution
44.8%6.1%49.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
14.d5
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation
Analyzen=6.4K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.1%

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 47.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 46.8% and 48.8%), based on 6.4K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 49%

1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1200-1399: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1400-1599: 31.0% win rate (13 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.4% win rate (124 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.3% win rate (658 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.9% win rate (2,644 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.5% win rate (2,640 games)
  • 2500+: 49.4% win rate (348 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (54%), worst in Rapid (41%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 45.1% win rate (1,592 games)
  • Blitz: 44.9% win rate (4,436 games)
  • Rapid: 41.3% win rate (382 games)
  • Classical: 53.8% win rate (18 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399————
1400-1599———
1600-1799——
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 38.7% expected score (60 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (60 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (156 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (470 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (25 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (559 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (1,926 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (150 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (609 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (1,828 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (201 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (197 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (149 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack
49.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit Accepted
51.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Botvinnik Variation
45.0%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 44.8% (90% CI: 43.7%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.4K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 49.4% win rate for white (348 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (44.9%) outperforms Rapid (41.3%) by 3.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a sharpness score of 93.9 (decisive), meaning 93.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 43.4% (90% CI: 36.2%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 124 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 40.1%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 658 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 42.9% (90% CI: 41.3%-44.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 44.9%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 45.0%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 348 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 43.0%-47.1%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.7%-46.1%) win rate for white (4.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 41.3% (90% CI: 37.2%-45.5%) win rate for white (382 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.0%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation is slightly favors black with a 44.8% (90% CI: 43.7%-45.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.