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Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation

291K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.0%Range (90% confident): 50.8% – 51.1%Based on 291K games
0%51.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.8% – 51.1%
Outcome Distribution
48.4%5.2%46.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Bg7
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation
Analyzen=291K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.2%

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation has a 51.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.8% and 51.1%), based on 291K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.6% win rate (1,578 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.6% win rate (4,961 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.8% win rate (11,489 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.6% win rate (22,752 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.5% win rate (41,290 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.7% win rate (61,925 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.0% win rate (69,953 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.8% win rate (61,246 games)
  • 2500+: 50.0% win rate (16,016 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.5% win rate (598 games)
  • Bullet: 49.0% win rate (123,579 games)
  • Blitz: 48.1% win rate (140,293 games)
  • Rapid: 47.4% win rate (25,633 games)
  • Classical: 47.4% win rate (1,107 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (592 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (785 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (200 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (2,022 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (2,277 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (651 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (44 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (4,525 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (5,329 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (1,556 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (35 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 40.8% expected score (139 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (8,038 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (11,248 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (3,184 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (143 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (205 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (14,583 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (21,079 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (5,112 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (311 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (136 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (21,563 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (33,172 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (6,694 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (360 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.9% expected score (55 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (27,789 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (36,335 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (5,597 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (177 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (32,517 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (26,210 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (2,435 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.5% expected score (71 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (11,950 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (3,858 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (204 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack
49.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit Accepted
51.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Botvinnik Variation
45.0%
Continuations (7)
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch
45.8%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Hungarian Attack
49.8%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Hungarian Variation
48.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation
45.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System
49.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation
51.1%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 291K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.0% win rate for white (16K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.0%) outperforms Classical (47.4%) by 1.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 45.6%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.5%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 5.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 41K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 62K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 70K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 61K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 45.1%-51.8%) win rate for white (598 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.2%) win rate for white (124K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.3%) win rate for white (140K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.9%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 44.9%-49.9%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.0%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.