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Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation

291K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.0%

45%55%
Floor50.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.1%.

Measured over 291K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 291K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
291K
Best context
58.4% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
46.1% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
94.8%
Draws
5.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 53.0%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (592 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (785 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (200 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (2,022 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (2,277 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (651 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (44 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (4,525 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (5,329 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (1,556 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (35 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 40.8% expected score (139 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (8,038 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (11,248 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (3,184 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (143 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (205 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (14,583 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (21,079 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (5,112 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (311 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (136 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (21,563 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (33,172 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (6,694 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (360 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.9% expected score (55 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (27,789 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (36,335 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (5,597 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (177 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (32,517 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (26,210 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (2,435 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.5% expected score (71 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (11,950 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (3,858 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (204 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System
49.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Stockholm Variation
48.5%
Continuations (7)
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System
49.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Hungarian Variation
48.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation
45.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Hungarian Attack
49.8%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch
45.8%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation
51.1%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation scores 51.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.8% and 51.1% — from 291K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
291K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate?

Playing the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, White wins 48.4%, draws 5.2% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 291K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.4% (16K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.1% in Blitz (140K games) against 50.8% in Rapid (26K games).

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 47.6%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 48.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 49.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 48.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 48.5%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 41K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 47.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 62K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 48.0%, draws 5.6% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 70K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 48.8%, draws 6.4% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 61K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 50.0%, draws 8.6% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 48.5%, draws 1.4% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 598 Lichess games.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 124K Lichess games.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 48.1%, draws 5.9% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 140K Lichess games.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.4%, draws 6.8% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 47.4%, draws 8.0% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.4% of its games and loses 46.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.