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Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation

98K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score47.7%Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 48.0%Based on 98K games
0%47.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 48.0%
Outcome Distribution
45.2%4.9%49.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Bd3
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation
Analyzen=98K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.9%

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation has a 47.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.5% and 48.0%), based on 98K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.9% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.5% win rate (793 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.6% win rate (2,596 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.7% win rate (5,843 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.5% win rate (11,208 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.8% win rate (19,541 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.9% win rate (27,906 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.0% win rate (20,930 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.6% win rate (8,065 games)
  • 2500+: 44.1% win rate (1,241 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (46%), worst in Classical (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 44.5% win rate (402 games)
  • Bullet: 46.1% win rate (41,648 games)
  • Blitz: 44.9% win rate (45,214 games)
  • Rapid: 43.9% win rate (10,429 games)
  • Classical: 37.2% win rate (430 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (284 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (416 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (88 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,040 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (1,207 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (340 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (2,528 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (2,551 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (724 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.8% expected score (57 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (4,565 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (5,218 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (1,313 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (55 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.6% expected score (124 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (7,306 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (9,939 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (2,066 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 33.8% expected score (106 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (130 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (9,769 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (14,867 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (2,967 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.2% expected score (173 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (9,264 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (9,060 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (2,482 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (76 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (5,705 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (1,906 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (445 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (1,187 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (50 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack
49.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit Accepted
51.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Botvinnik Variation
45.0%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 45.0%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 98K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 46.5% win rate for white (11K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (46.1%) outperforms Classical (37.2%) by 8.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 45.6%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 793 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 45.0%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.7%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.2%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.4%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation has a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.4%-44.6%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 43.7%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 8.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation has a 44.1% (90% CI: 41.8%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 40.4%-48.6%) win rate for white (402 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.5%) win rate for white (42K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.5%-45.2%) win rate for white (45K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation has a 43.9% (90% CI: 43.1%-44.7%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation has a 37.2% (90% CI: 33.4%-41.1%) win rate for white (430 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.5%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Paris Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.2% (90% CI: 45.0%-45.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.