Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation

455K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

View As

Playable

White Expected Score49.2%Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 49.3%Based on 455K games

0%49.2%100%

Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 49.3%

Outcome Distribution

45.9%6.4%47.6%

Win

Draw

Loss

4...Nxd5

Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation

Analyzen=455K

Avg Length36 moves

Sharpness94%

Draw Rate6.4%

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.1% and 49.3%), based on 455K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.4% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 49%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (50%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199	—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+	—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.8% expected score (364 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (298 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 36.1% expected score (63 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (1,634 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (1,206 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (229 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (6 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (4,401 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (4,240 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (837 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 26.8% expected score (20 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.7% expected score (35 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (9,291 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (13,770 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (2,766 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (123 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (29 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (17,509 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (37,686 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (7,072 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.5% expected score (449 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (30 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (28,082 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (78,534 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (15,054 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (934 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (17 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (32,392 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (83,542 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (14,198 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (478 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (30,179 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (48,521 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (5,905 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (123 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (9,529 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (5,457 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (331 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (14 games)

Related Openings

Parent

Grünfeld Defense

45.8%

Variations (5)

Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation

47.7%

Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack

49.6%

Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit

45.9%

Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit Accepted

51.6%

Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Botvinnik Variation

45.0%

Continuations (10)

Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation

46.2%

Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Larsen Variation

46.3%

Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation

45.9%

Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Kramnik's Line

47.1%

Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Pawn Grab Line

65.8%

Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack

50.9%

Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation

45.7%

Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation

47.7%

Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation

44.3%

Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Sokolsky Variation

44.8%

Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 455K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 48.7% win rate for white (15K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (46.7%) outperforms Classical (41.4%) by 5.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 93.6 (decisive), meaning 93.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 42.9% (90% CI: 39.9%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 729 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.2%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 45.7%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 9.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.6%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 44.4% (90% CI: 44.0%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 63K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.5%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 123K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 131K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 85K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 10.9% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 42.5%-57.1%) win rate for white (126 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.4%-46.9%) win rate for white (133K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.2%) win rate for white (273K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 43.6% (90% CI: 43.2%-44.0%) win rate for white (46K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.2%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 41.4% (90% CI: 39.7%-43.2%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.1%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation is statistically balanced with a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation expected score for White?