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Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack

9.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.2%Range (90% confident): 53.4% – 55.1%Based on 9.4K games
0%54.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.4% – 55.1%
Outcome Distribution
50.9%6.6%42.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Na4
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack
Analyzen=9.4K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.6%

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack has a 54.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.4% and 55.1%), based on 9.4K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 33% → 50%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 33.3% win rate (3 games)
  • 1200-1399: 41.2% win rate (7 games)
  • 1400-1599: 56.6% win rate (40 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.7% win rate (207 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.2% win rate (1,236 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.4% win rate (3,175 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.4% win rate (3,556 games)
  • 2500+: 49.7% win rate (1,173 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (53%), worst in Classical (42%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 52.8% win rate (2,578 games)
  • Blitz: 50.2% win rate (6,111 games)
  • Rapid: 50.8% win rate (677 games)
  • Classical: 41.5% win rate (31 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (82 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (108 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 71.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (162 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (994 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 65.0% expected score (72 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (678 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (2,122 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (361 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 33.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (802 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (2,549 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (198 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (835 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (313 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (25 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack
49.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit Accepted
51.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Botvinnik Variation
45.0%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 9.4K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.4% win rate for white (3.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.8%) outperforms Rapid (50.8%) by 2.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack has a sharpness score of 93.4 (decisive), meaning 93.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack has a 47.7% (90% CI: 42.1%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 207 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack has a 52.2% (90% CI: 49.8%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.0%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.0%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack has a 49.7% (90% CI: 47.3%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 9.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack has a 52.8% (90% CI: 51.2%-54.4%) win rate for white (2.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-51.2%) win rate for white (6.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack has a 50.8% (90% CI: 47.6%-53.9%) win rate for white (677 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.4%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Nadanian Attack is statistically favors white with a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.