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Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System

344K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.7%Range (90% confident): 51.6% – 51.8%Based on 344K games
0%51.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.6% – 51.8%
Outcome Distribution
49.2%5.0%45.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Bg5
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System
Analyzen=344K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.0%

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System has a 51.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.6% and 51.8%), based on 344K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 49% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.6% win rate (993 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.5% win rate (4,867 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.0% win rate (13,941 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.7% win rate (32,880 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.2% win rate (61,626 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.1% win rate (84,468 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.7% win rate (76,301 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.4% win rate (55,088 games)
  • 2500+: 51.3% win rate (14,320 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (50%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.5% win rate (258 games)
  • Bullet: 50.0% win rate (145,326 games)
  • Blitz: 48.9% win rate (172,964 games)
  • Rapid: 47.2% win rate (24,900 games)
  • Classical: 42.6% win rate (1,036 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (522 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (405 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (65 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (2,550 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (1,969 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (338 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 34.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (6,666 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (6,088 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (1,141 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.7% expected score (25 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (62 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (14,132 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (15,638 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2,972 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (76 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.9% expected score (86 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (23,983 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (32,103 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5,159 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (295 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.9% expected score (69 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (31,862 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (44,931 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (7,227 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.2% expected score (379 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (30,179 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (40,567 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (5,359 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (184 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (25,605 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (26,961 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (2,453 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (66 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (9,827 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (4,302 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.8% expected score (186 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack
49.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit Accepted
51.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Botvinnik Variation
45.0%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 344K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.3% win rate for white (14K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.0%) outperforms Classical (42.6%) by 7.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 993 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 62K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 84K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 76K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 9.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System has a 49.5% (90% CI: 44.4%-54.6%) win rate for white (258 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.2%) win rate for white (145K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.1%) win rate for white (173K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.7%) win rate for white (25K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System has a 42.6% (90% CI: 40.0%-45.1%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.9%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System is statistically balanced with a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.