Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation

112K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation is balanced for Black at 49.2% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score49.2%Based on 112K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%49.2%55%
Range (90% confident): 48.9% – 49.4%
Min adv-2.2%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=112K
Outcome Distribution
8...O-O
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation
Analyzen=112K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.8%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation has a 49.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.9% and 49.4%), based on 112K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 57% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 57.4% win rate (22 games)
  • 1000-1199: 34.6% win rate (75 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.6% win rate (179 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.2% win rate (1,052 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.2% win rate (6,069 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.6% win rate (25,422 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.2% win rate (44,370 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.0% win rate (29,543 games)
  • 2500+: 40.1% win rate (5,084 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (54%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.8% win rate (5 games)
  • Bullet: 47.7% win rate (30,235 games)
  • Blitz: 45.2% win rate (71,781 games)
  • Rapid: 44.0% win rate (9,289 games)
  • Classical: 40.7% win rate (506 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 36.3% expected score (57 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (120 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (55 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (558 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (442 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (45 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (2,084 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (3,598 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (359 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (5,048 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (18,046 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (2,126 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (202 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (8,814 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (31,044 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (4,285 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (226 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (10,028 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (17,120 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (2,359 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (3,517 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (1,450 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (110 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System
49.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation
48.4%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 112K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.9% win rate for white (5.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.7%) outperforms Classical (42.5%) by 5.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation has a sharpness score of 93.2 (decisive), meaning 93.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 42.9%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 179 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 48.8%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.5%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 6.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 44K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 9.0% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.2%) win rate for white (30K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.8%) win rate for white (72K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.5%-47.2%) win rate for white (9.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.7%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation has a 42.5% (90% CI: 38.9%-46.1%) win rate for white (506 Lichess games). Draw rate is 16.8%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.