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Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation

112K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.2%

45%55%
Floor48.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.4%.

Measured over 112K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 6.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 112K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
112K
Best context
53.4% at 1800-1999 Rapid
Worst context
42.3% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
37 moves
Games that end decisively
93.2%
Draws
6.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 58.0% at 0-999, 45.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 36.3% expected score (57 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (120 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (55 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (558 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (442 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (45 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (2,084 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (3,598 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (359 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (5,048 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (18,046 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (2,126 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (202 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (8,814 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (31,044 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (4,285 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (226 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (10,028 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (17,120 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (2,359 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (3,517 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (1,450 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (110 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System
49.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation
48.4%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation scores 49.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.9% and 49.4% — from 112K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
112K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation scores 49.2% (range, 90% confident: 48.9% – 49.4%) for Black, based on 112K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation performs best at 1800-1999, where it scores 50.6% for Black (25K games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, Bullet (50.0%) outperforms Classical (49.1%). Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation has a sharpness score of 93.2 (decisive), meaning 93.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation scores 50.3% (range, 90% confident: 44.2% – 56.4%) for Black, based on 179 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation scores 47.5% (range, 90% confident: 45.0% – 50.0%) for Black, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation scores 50.4% (range, 90% confident: 49.3% – 51.4%) for Black, based on 6.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation scores 50.6% (range, 90% confident: 50.0% – 51.1%) for Black, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation scores 49.8% (range, 90% confident: 49.4% – 50.2%) for Black, based on 44K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation scores 47.7% (range, 90% confident: 47.2% – 48.2%) for Black, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation scores 44.6% (range, 90% confident: 43.4% – 45.7%) for Black, based on 5.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 9.0% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation scores 50.0% (range, 90% confident: 49.5% – 50.5%) for Black (30K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation scores 48.9% (range, 90% confident: 48.6% – 49.2%) for Black (72K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation scores 48.9% (range, 90% confident: 48.0% – 49.7%) for Black (9.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.7%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation scores 49.1% (range, 90% confident: 45.5% – 52.7%) for Black (506 Lichess games). Draw rate is 16.8%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Spassky Variation is about level with a 47.4% (range, 90% confident: 47.2% – 47.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.