TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation

94K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.4%Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 49.7%Based on 94K games
0%49.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 49.7%
Outcome Distribution
46.2%6.4%47.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.Bc4
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation
Analyzen=94K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.4%

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation has a 49.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.1% and 49.7%), based on 94K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 47%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.9% win rate (44 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.2% win rate (229 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.0% win rate (748 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.3% win rate (2,929 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.4% win rate (10,821 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.9% win rate (27,371 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.8% win rate (31,590 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.2% win rate (17,753 games)
  • 2500+: 46.5% win rate (3,002 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (53%), worst in Classical (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.9% win rate (7 games)
  • Bullet: 46.7% win rate (23,367 games)
  • Blitz: 46.1% win rate (59,432 games)
  • Rapid: 45.8% win rate (11,138 games)
  • Classical: 43.8% win rate (543 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.2% expected score (24 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (118 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (90 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (359 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (329 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (59 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,215 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (1,432 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (261 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (3,074 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (6,544 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (1,112 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (90 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (5,079 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (18,718 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (3,364 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (210 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (6,587 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (20,457 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (4,357 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (186 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (5,384 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (10,497 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (1,838 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.9% expected score (34 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (1,527 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (1,347 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (124 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack
49.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit Accepted
51.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Botvinnik Variation
45.0%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 94K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 47.2% win rate for white (18K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (46.7%) outperforms Classical (43.8%) by 2.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation has a sharpness score of 93.6 (decisive), meaning 93.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 43.8%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 229 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 42.1%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 748 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 43.8%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.0%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 13.4% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.1%-47.2%) win rate for white (23K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.4%) win rate for white (59K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.0%-46.6%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.2%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation has a 43.8% (90% CI: 40.3%-47.3%) win rate for white (543 Lichess games). Draw rate is 13.9%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Classical Variation is statistically balanced with a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.