220 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Larsen Variation is balanced for Black at 50.7% expected score.
Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Sharpness — share of games that end decisively
At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Larsen Variation has a 50.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.2% and 56.2%), based on 220 Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 20% → 29%
Best in Classical (60%), worst in Rapid (30%)
Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | ||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | — | ||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Larsen Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 40.8%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 220 rated games from Lichess.
The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Larsen Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 48.2% win rate for white (122 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Larsen Variation has a sharpness score of 93.9 (decisive), meaning 93.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Larsen Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 40.8%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 122 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Larsen Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 42.1%-54.7%) win rate for white (167 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.
The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Larsen Variation is slightly favors black with a 46.3% (90% CI: 40.8%-51.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.