2.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation is balanced for Black at 49.4% expected score.
Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Sharpness — share of games that end decisively
At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a 49.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.9% and 50.9%), based on 2.9K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 43% → 46%
Best in Classical (62%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)
Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.2%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K rated games from Lichess.
The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 48.6% win rate for white (997 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (49.2%) outperforms Rapid (41.8%) by 7.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 44.3%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 176 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 44.9%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 540 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 997 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 43.7%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a 43.2% (90% CI: 36.1%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 127 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 10.5% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 46.3%-52.1%) win rate for white (800 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.
In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 45.9%-49.7%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.
In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a 41.8% (90% CI: 36.7%-46.9%) win rate for white (251 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.7%.
The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.2%-49.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.