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Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation

2.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.7%Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 52.2%Based on 2.9K games
0%50.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 52.2%
Outcome Distribution
47.7%5.9%46.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...Nc6
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation
Analyzen=2.9K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.9%

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a 50.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.2% and 52.2%), based on 2.9K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~43%)

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1200-1399: 60.0% win rate (21 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.0% win rate (61 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.4% win rate (176 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.5% win rate (540 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.6% win rate (997 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.2% win rate (1,003 games)
  • 2500+: 43.2% win rate (127 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (33%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 49.2% win rate (800 games)
  • Blitz: 47.8% win rate (1,866 games)
  • Rapid: 41.8% win rate (251 games)
  • Classical: 33.3% win rate (9 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199————
1200-1399—
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 38.5% expected score (29 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (60 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (99 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 72.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (106 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (380 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (50 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (296 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (610 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (89 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (276 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (645 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 35.3% expected score (80 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (88 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack
49.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit Accepted
51.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Botvinnik Variation
45.0%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.2%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 48.6% win rate for white (997 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.2%) outperforms Rapid (41.8%) by 7.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 44.3%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 176 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 44.9%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 540 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 997 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 43.7%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a 43.2% (90% CI: 36.1%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 127 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 10.5% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 46.3%-52.1%) win rate for white (800 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 45.9%-49.7%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation has a 41.8% (90% CI: 36.7%-46.9%) win rate for white (251 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.7%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Improved Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.2%-49.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.