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Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation

1.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation is balanced for Black at 51.9% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score51.9%Based on 1.4K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%51.9%60%
Range (90% confident): 49.8% – 54.1%
Min adv-0.5%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=1.4K
Outcome Distribution
8...b6
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation
Analyzen=1.4K
Avg Length39 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate7.7%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation has a 51.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.8% and 54.1%), based on 1.4K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 82% → 43%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 81.8% win rate (4 games)
  • 1200-1399: 14.3% win rate (2 games)
  • 1400-1599: 30.6% win rate (23 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.3% win rate (71 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.8% win rate (223 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.9% win rate (378 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.7% win rate (505 games)
  • 2500+: 42.9% win rate (242 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (43%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 49.1% win rate (607 games)
  • Blitz: 47.2% win rate (770 games)
  • Rapid: 48.0% win rate (62 games)
  • Classical: 42.9% win rate (9 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199————
1200-1399————
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (57 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (61 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (144 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (123 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (226 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (24 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (217 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (276 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (181 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (60 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System
49.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation
48.4%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation has a 44.3% (90% CI: 42.1%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 46.2% win rate for white (242 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (45.4%) outperforms Rapid (43.3%) by 2.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation has a sharpness score of 92.3 (decisive), meaning 92.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 40.7%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 223 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation has a 43.6% (90% CI: 39.4%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 378 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation has a 42.5% (90% CI: 39.0%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 505 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 41.0%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 242 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 10.9% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 42.1%-48.8%) win rate for white (607 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation has a 43.5% (90% CI: 40.6%-46.4%) win rate for white (770 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.3%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Simagin's Lesser Variation is slightly favors black with a 44.3% (90% CI: 42.1%-46.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.