Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation
19K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.4%.
Measured over 19K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 19K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 19K
- Best context
- 62.8% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 49.8% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.7%
- Draws
- 5.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.8% at 0-999, 67.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 62.9% expected score (18 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (47 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (80 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (171 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (268 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (46 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (313 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (622 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (122 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (714 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (1,248 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (259 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (952 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (2,568 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (539 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (27 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (1,151 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (3,591 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (595 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 86.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (1,333 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (3,288 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.5% expected score (184 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (478 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 62.8% expected score (603 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 84.8% expected score (10 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation scores 53.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.2% and 54.4% — from 19K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 19K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation win rate?
Playing the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation, White wins 51.1%, draws 5.3% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 19K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation perform best?
The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 59.7% (1.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.5% in Blitz (12K games) against 54.2% in Rapid (1.8K games).
How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation?
The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 46.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 138 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 53.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 485 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 54.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 49.3%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.5%, draws 5.6% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 52.7%, draws 6.6% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 55.3%, draws 8.6% and loses 36.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.7%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games.
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 51.5%, draws 6.1% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 50.7%, draws 6.9% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games.
Is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation a good opening?
The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Vienna Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.1% of its games and loses 43.6%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.