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Analyzer

Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation

3.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation is balanced for Black at 49.2% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score49.2%Based on 3.7K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
40%49.2%55%
Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 50.5%
Min adv-4.4%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=3.7K
Outcome Distribution
6...e6
Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation
Analyzen=3.7K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.2%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 49.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.8% and 50.5%), based on 3.7K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 42% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 41.9% win rate (14 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.4% win rate (83 games)
  • 1200-1399: 54.1% win rate (175 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.2% win rate (379 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.7% win rate (570 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.2% win rate (625 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.9% win rate (633 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.8% win rate (839 games)
  • 2500+: 39.1% win rate (350 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (50%), worst in Blitz (44%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 50.4% win rate (789 games)
  • Blitz: 44.4% win rate (2,360 games)
  • Rapid: 47.2% win rate (493 games)
  • Classical: 45.5% win rate (26 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 35.5% expected score (26 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (53 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 71.0% expected score (39 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (108 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (28 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (107 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (212 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (58 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (167 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (281 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (115 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 61.0% expected score (126 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (344 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (145 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (113 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (412 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (102 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (141 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (658 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (39 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (66 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (283 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System
49.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation
48.4%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.4%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 51.4% win rate for white (570 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (48.6%) outperforms Rapid (46.4%) by 2.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a sharpness score of 93.8 (decisive), meaning 93.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 42.8% (90% CI: 36.7%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 175 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 44.5%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 379 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 47.9%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 570 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 42.3%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 625 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 45.0%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 633 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 44.7%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 839 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 40.2%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 350 Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 16.4% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 43.2%-49.0%) win rate for white (789 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.9%-50.3%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 42.7%-50.1%) win rate for white (493 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.4%-49.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.