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Analyzer

Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation

9.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation is balanced for Black at 49.0% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score49.0%Based on 9.0K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%49.0%55%
Range (90% confident): 48.1% – 49.8%
Min adv-3.9%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=9.0K
Outcome Distribution
7...a6
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation
Analyzen=9.0K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate8.0%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation has a 49.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.1% and 49.8%), based on 9.0K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 35%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 33.3% win rate (3 games)
  • 1200-1399: 33.3% win rate (3 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.1% win rate (24 games)
  • 1600-1799: 59.6% win rate (142 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.3% win rate (701 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.5% win rate (2,825 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.1% win rate (4,104 games)
  • 2500+: 35.2% win rate (1,201 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (46%), worst in Classical (40%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 44.0% win rate (2,059 games)
  • Blitz: 45.7% win rate (6,223 games)
  • Rapid: 41.2% win rate (672 games)
  • Classical: 39.8% win rate (50 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199———
1200-1399————
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 73.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 29.3% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 69.8% expected score (44 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (76 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 64.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (124 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (499 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (63 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (492 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (2,095 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (221 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (812 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (3,001 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (280 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (574 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (538 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (86 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System
49.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation
48.4%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 9.0K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 49.2% win rate for white (4.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.4%) outperforms Classical (37.9%) by 10.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation has a sharpness score of 92.0 (decisive), meaning 92.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation has a 34.5% (90% CI: 28.1%-41.1%) win rate for white, based on 142 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 41.8%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 701 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.3%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 47.9%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 43.2%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 19.3% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.6%-50.2%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.3%) win rate for white (6.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation has a 41.9% (90% CI: 38.8%-45.1%) win rate for white (672 Lichess games). Draw rate is 16.9%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Hungarian Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.