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Analyzer

Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation

443 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation leaves Black at 41.7% — pick a better weapon.

The minimum advantage of -24.3% means this line underperforms at the selected level.

You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score41.7%Based on 443 gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
30%41.7%55%
Range (90% confident): 37.9% – 45.6%
Min adv-24.3%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=443
Outcome Distribution
6...c5
Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation
Analyzen=443
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness98%
Draw Rate2.1%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation has a 41.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 37.9% and 45.6%), based on 443 Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~43%)

1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1200-1399: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1400-1599: 10.3% win rate (13 games)
  • 1600-1799: 38.5% win rate (31 games)
  • 1800-1999: 40.9% win rate (73 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.4% win rate (160 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.2% win rate (143 games)
  • 2500+: 42.2% win rate (21 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (41%), worst in Rapid (30%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid

  • Bullet: 41.2% win rate (184 games)
  • Blitz: 40.5% win rate (249 games)
  • Rapid: 30.4% win rate (10 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399————
1400-1599——
1600-1799——
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499———
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 23.9% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 37.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (55 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (52 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.1% expected score (105 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (78 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (65 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System
49.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation
48.4%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation has a 57.3% (90% CI: 53.4%-61.1%) win rate for white, based on 443 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 56.0% win rate for white (160 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (56.9%) outperforms Bullet (57.4%) by -0.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation has a sharpness score of 97.9 (very decisive), meaning 97.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation has a 56.0% (90% CI: 49.6%-62.4%) win rate for white, based on 160 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation has a 55.7% (90% CI: 48.9%-62.4%) win rate for white, based on 143 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation has a 57.4% (90% CI: 51.4%-63.3%) win rate for white (184 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation has a 56.9% (90% CI: 51.7%-62.0%) win rate for white (249 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Lundin Variation is statistically favors white with a 57.3% (90% CI: 53.4%-61.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.