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Analyzer

Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation

8.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation leaves Black at 46.3% — pick a better weapon.

The minimum advantage of -9.1% means this line underperforms at the selected level.

You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score46.3%Based on 8.3K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
40%46.3%55%
Range (90% confident): 45.5% – 47.2%
Min adv-9.1%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=8.3K
Outcome Distribution
7...c6
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation
Analyzen=8.3K
Avg Length39 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.5%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation has a 46.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.5% and 47.2%), based on 8.3K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 56% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.6% win rate (3 games)
  • 1000-1199: 36.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1200-1399: 58.5% win rate (25 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.3% win rate (70 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.8% win rate (350 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.9% win rate (1,374 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.3% win rate (3,290 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.1% win rate (2,812 games)
  • 2500+: 40.9% win rate (398 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Classical (31%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 44.8% win rate (2,136 games)
  • Blitz: 43.0% win rate (5,456 games)
  • Rapid: 38.4% win rate (705 games)
  • Classical: 30.7% win rate (36 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 68.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (22 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (40 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (113 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (213 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 73.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (291 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (937 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (132 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (604 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (2,322 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (354 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 28.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (805 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (1,826 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (177 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (289 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.0% expected score (98 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System
49.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation
48.4%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 8.3K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 52.1% win rate for white (1.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (50.5%) outperforms Rapid (49.0%) by 1.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation has a sharpness score of 93.5 (decisive), meaning 93.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 41.6%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 350 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.4%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.3%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 47.1%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 398 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 48.5%-52.0%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.7%) win rate for white (5.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 46.0%-52.1%) win rate for white (705 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.5%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Szabo Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.