6.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Pawn Grab Line has a 69.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 68.2% and 70.0%), based on 6.7K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 60% → 67%
Best in Bullet (67%), worst in Classical (56%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Pawn Grab Line has a 65.8% (90% CI: 64.9%-66.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K rated games from Lichess.
The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Pawn Grab Line performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 68.2% win rate for white (892 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (67.4%) outperforms Rapid (65.2%) by 2.2%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Pawn Grab Line has a sharpness score of 93.5 (decisive), meaning 93.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Pawn Grab Line has a 63.0% (90% CI: 56.2%-69.6%) win rate for white, based on 139 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Pawn Grab Line has a 68.2% (90% CI: 65.6%-70.8%) win rate for white, based on 892 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Pawn Grab Line has a 66.4% (90% CI: 64.9%-67.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Pawn Grab Line has a 64.2% (90% CI: 62.7%-65.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Pawn Grab Line has a 67.1% (90% CI: 62.7%-71.4%) win rate for white, based on 312 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 9.4% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Pawn Grab Line has a 67.4% (90% CI: 65.5%-69.3%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.
In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Pawn Grab Line has a 65.3% (90% CI: 64.2%-66.5%) win rate for white (4.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.
In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Pawn Grab Line has a 65.2% (90% CI: 61.6%-68.7%) win rate for white (481 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.
The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Pawn Grab Line is statistically favors white with a 65.8% (90% CI: 64.9%-66.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.