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Analyzer

Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation

7.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation is balanced for Black at 51.6% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score51.6%Based on 7.0K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%51.6%60%
Range (90% confident): 50.6% – 52.6%
Min adv+1.2%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=7.0K
Outcome Distribution
7...Nc6
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation
Analyzen=7.0K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.5%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation has a 51.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.6% and 52.6%), based on 7.0K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 23% → 41%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 23.1% win rate (5 games)
  • 1200-1399: 37.9% win rate (13 games)
  • 1400-1599: 20.8% win rate (25 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.0% win rate (137 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.2% win rate (607 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.3% win rate (1,918 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.3% win rate (3,385 games)
  • 2500+: 40.9% win rate (861 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (49%), worst in Rapid (46%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 47.4% win rate (1,600 games)
  • Blitz: 48.9% win rate (4,872 games)
  • Rapid: 45.5% win rate (463 games)
  • Classical: 48.6% win rate (16 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 19.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (53 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (76 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (136 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (412 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (55 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (304 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (1,435 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (173 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (669 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (2,517 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (196 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (426 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (411 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.1% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System
49.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation
48.4%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.1%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 48.3% win rate for white (861 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.8%) outperforms Rapid (43.8%) by 4.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation has a sharpness score of 93.5 (decisive), meaning 93.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 38.9%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 137 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 41.2%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 607 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 43.2%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation has a 44.1% (90% CI: 42.7%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 45.5%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 861 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 10.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 45.7%-49.9%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation has a 44.4% (90% CI: 43.3%-45.6%) win rate for white (4.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation has a 43.8% (90% CI: 40.0%-47.6%) win rate for white (463 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.7%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Byrne Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.1%-46.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.