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Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation

5.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.6%Range (90% confident): 48.5% – 50.7%Based on 5.7K games
0%49.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.5% – 50.7%
Outcome Distribution
45.7%7.7%46.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
12.Bxf7+
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation
Analyzen=5.7K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate7.7%

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation has a 49.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.5% and 50.7%), based on 5.7K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 93.5 · Trap factor: +29.3 · n=5.7K

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 49%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1200-1399: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.4% win rate (8 games)
  • 1600-1799: 41.7% win rate (158 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.6% win rate (1,098 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.6% win rate (2,391 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.6% win rate (1,715 games)
  • 2500+: 48.8% win rate (313 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (47%), worst in Classical (31%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 47.4% win rate (1,079 games)
  • Blitz: 45.5% win rate (4,051 games)
  • Rapid: 44.5% win rate (516 games)
  • Classical: 30.9% win rate (39 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199————
1200-1399————
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 38.5% expected score (68 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (82 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (172 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (841 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (77 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (382 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (1,750 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (242 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (316 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (1,223 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (169 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.9% expected score (135 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (153 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack
49.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit Accepted
51.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Botvinnik Variation
45.0%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 44.6%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 47.6% win rate for white (1.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.4%) outperforms Rapid (44.5%) by 2.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation has a sharpness score of 92.3 (decisive), meaning 92.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation has a 41.7% (90% CI: 35.3%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 158 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation has a 42.6% (90% CI: 40.2%-45.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 43.9%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 45.6%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 44.2%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 313 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 17.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 44.9%-49.9%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.3%-46.8%) win rate for white (4.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.0%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 41.0%-48.1%) win rate for white (516 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.7%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Seville Variation is statistically balanced with a 45.7% (90% CI: 44.6%-46.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.