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Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation

5.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.1%Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 55.2%Based on 5.4K games
0%54.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 55.2%
Outcome Distribution
51.0%6.1%42.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.b4
Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation
Analyzen=5.4K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.1%

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 54.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.0% and 55.2%), based on 5.4K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 59%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.3% win rate (32 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.9% win rate (139 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.8% win rate (297 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.0% win rate (502 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.3% win rate (738 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.1% win rate (685 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.5% win rate (794 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.8% win rate (1,796 games)
  • 2500+: 58.8% win rate (370 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (53%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 53.3% win rate (1,111 games)
  • Blitz: 51.1% win rate (3,640 games)
  • Rapid: 46.1% win rate (563 games)
  • Classical: 42.9% win rate (37 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (42 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (83 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 60.0% expected score (64 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (197 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 63.7% expected score (35 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (113 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (297 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (88 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (137 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (473 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (120 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 34.2% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (104 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (398 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (165 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (74 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (620 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 62.6% expected score (94 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 59.6% expected score (418 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (1,348 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.9% expected score (28 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.0% expected score (149 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 64.9% expected score (204 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.9% expected score (17 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack
49.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit Accepted
51.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Botvinnik Variation
45.0%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 58.8% win rate for white (370 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.3%) outperforms Rapid (46.1%) by 7.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation has a sharpness score of 93.9 (decisive), meaning 93.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 39.0%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 139 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 48.0%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 297 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 42.3%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 502 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 44.2%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 738 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 44.0%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 685 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 48.6%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 794 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 51.9%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 58.8% (90% CI: 54.6%-63.0%) win rate for white, based on 370 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 9.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 50.9%-55.8%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-52.5%) win rate for white (3.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 42.7%-49.6%) win rate for white (563 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Makogonov Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-52.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.