Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation
5.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
54.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.4%.
Measured over 5.1K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 7.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 5.1K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 5.1K
- Best context
- 56.3% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 54.9% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 92.7%
- Draws
- 7.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 50.0%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 37.9% expected score (15 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (32 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 61.6% expected score (46 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (165 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.1% expected score (21 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (157 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (473 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (72 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (255 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (895 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (136 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (233 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (1,651 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (119 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (467 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (281 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation scores 54.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.1% and 55.4% — from 5.1K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 5.1K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation win rate?
The Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation scores 54.3% (range, 90% confident: 53.1% – 55.4%) for White, based on 5.1K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation perform best?
The Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation performs best at 2000-2199, where it scores 56.1% for White (1.3K games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, Blitz (54.5%) outperforms Rapid (53.4%). Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation?
The Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation has a sharpness score of 92.7 (decisive), meaning 92.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation scores 46.4% (range, 90% confident: 41.0% – 51.8%) for White, based on 232 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation scores 53.0% (range, 90% confident: 49.9% – 56.1%) for White, based on 705 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation scores 56.1% (range, 90% confident: 53.8% – 58.3%) for White, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation scores 54.5% (range, 90% confident: 52.7% – 56.3%) for White, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.8% draw rate.
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation scores 54.8% (range, 90% confident: 51.9% – 57.7%) for White, based on 764 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 9.1% draw rate.
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation scores 53.7% (range, 90% confident: 51.3% – 56.1%) for White (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation scores 54.5% (range, 90% confident: 53.2% – 55.9%) for White (3.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.9%.
What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation scores 53.4% (range, 90% confident: 49.1% – 57.5%) for White (375 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.7%.
Is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation a good opening?
The Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation is good for White with a 50.6% (range, 90% confident: 49.5% – 51.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.