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Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit

30K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit is balanced for Black at 51.8% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score51.8%Based on 30K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%51.8%60%
Range (90% confident): 51.3% – 52.3%
Min adv+2.5%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=30K
Outcome Distribution
5...O-O
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit
Analyzen=30K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.7%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit has a 51.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 51.3% and 52.3%), based on 30K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +5.1% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 54% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.5% win rate (175 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.0% win rate (597 games)
  • 1200-1399: 54.2% win rate (1,452 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.8% win rate (3,289 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.9% win rate (6,160 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.4% win rate (8,761 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.0% win rate (6,912 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.7% win rate (2,141 games)
  • 2500+: 45.2% win rate (243 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (52%), worst in UltraBullet (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 36.8% win rate (8 games)
  • Bullet: 48.9% win rate (9,492 games)
  • Blitz: 49.4% win rate (16,260 games)
  • Rapid: 50.6% win rate (3,865 games)
  • Classical: 52.1% win rate (105 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (69 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (84 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 62.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (243 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (292 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (62 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (506 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (754 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 59.2% expected score (188 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (1,064 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (1,743 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (466 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (1,856 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (3,409 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (863 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 60.8% expected score (31 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (2,279 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (5,259 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (1,178 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (41 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (2,203 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (3,771 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (923 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (1,078 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (903 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (159 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (194 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (45 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System
49.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation
48.4%
Continuations (2)
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation
50.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Botvinnik Variation
45.0%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 30K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 46.6% win rate for white (6.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.5%) outperforms Classical (40.8%) by 6.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit?

The Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit has a 45.0% (90% CI: 38.9%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 175 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit has a 45.9% (90% CI: 42.5%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 597 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit has a 43.1% (90% CI: 41.0%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit has a 45.9% (90% CI: 44.5%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.3%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 6.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.6%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 8.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit has a 46.6% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit has a 46.3% (90% CI: 44.6%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit has a 45.2% (90% CI: 40.0%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 243 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 9.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.6%-48.3%) win rate for white (9.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.8%-46.0%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit has a 44.3% (90% CI: 43.0%-45.6%) win rate for white (3.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit has a 40.8% (90% CI: 33.1%-48.7%) win rate for white (105 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit is slightly favors black with a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.