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Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch

47K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.1%Range (90% confident): 48.7% – 49.5%Based on 47K games
0%49.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.7% – 49.5%
Outcome Distribution
45.8%6.6%47.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...Nc6
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch
Analyzen=47K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.6%

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 49.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.7% and 49.5%), based on 47K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 15.0% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 39% → 47%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 38.5% win rate (18 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.7% win rate (108 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.5% win rate (347 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.4% win rate (1,049 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.3% win rate (2,835 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.2% win rate (7,617 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.7% win rate (13,570 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.5% win rate (16,145 games)
  • 2500+: 47.2% win rate (5,805 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (48%), worst in Classical (33%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.5% win rate (107 games)
  • Bullet: 47.0% win rate (25,775 games)
  • Blitz: 44.9% win rate (19,562 games)
  • Rapid: 39.7% win rate (1,936 games)
  • Classical: 32.5% win rate (114 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 34.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (62 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 61.5% expected score (42 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (179 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (142 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (504 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (456 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 37.3% expected score (81 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 43.0% expected score (34 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,167 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (1,370 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (243 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (2,957 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (4,083 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (497 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 36.9% expected score (44 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 65.4% expected score (18 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (5,378 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (7,425 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (713 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (10,367 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (5,403 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (357 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (5,146 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (638 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack
49.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit Accepted
51.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Botvinnik Variation
45.0%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 47K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 47.2% win rate for white (5.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.0%) outperforms Classical (32.5%) by 14.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a sharpness score of 93.4 (decisive), meaning 93.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 50.7% (90% CI: 42.8%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 108 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 45.5% (90% CI: 41.1%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 347 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 47.4% (90% CI: 44.8%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 45.3% (90% CI: 43.7%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.3%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 7.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.0%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.9%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.1%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 47.5% (90% CI: 39.6%-55.3%) win rate for white (107 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.5%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.3%-45.5%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 39.7% (90% CI: 37.8%-41.5%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.0%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 32.5% (90% CI: 25.5%-39.8%) win rate for white (114 Lichess games). Draw rate is 17.7%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch is statistically balanced with a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.