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Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch

47K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch is balanced for Black at 50.9% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score50.9%Based on 47K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%50.9%55%
Range (90% confident): 50.5% – 51.3%
Min adv+1.0%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=47K
Outcome Distribution
8...Nc6
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch
Analyzen=47K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.6%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 50.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.5% and 51.3%), based on 47K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 15.0% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 59% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 59.0% win rate (18 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.1% win rate (108 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.2% win rate (347 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.2% win rate (1,049 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.6% win rate (2,835 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.9% win rate (7,617 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.0% win rate (13,570 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.3% win rate (16,145 games)
  • 2500+: 44.0% win rate (5,805 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (51%), worst in Bullet (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.5% win rate (107 games)
  • Bullet: 47.2% win rate (25,775 games)
  • Blitz: 47.7% win rate (19,562 games)
  • Rapid: 51.3% win rate (1,936 games)
  • Classical: 49.8% win rate (114 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 65.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (62 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 38.5% expected score (42 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (179 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (142 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 77.3% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (504 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (456 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 62.7% expected score (81 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (34 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (1,167 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (1,370 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (243 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (2,957 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (4,083 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (497 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 63.2% expected score (44 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 34.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (5,378 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (7,425 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (713 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (10,367 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (5,403 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.3% expected score (357 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (5,146 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (638 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System
49.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation
48.4%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 47K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 47.2% win rate for white (5.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.0%) outperforms Classical (32.5%) by 14.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a sharpness score of 93.4 (decisive), meaning 93.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 50.7% (90% CI: 42.8%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 108 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 45.5% (90% CI: 41.1%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 347 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 47.4% (90% CI: 44.8%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 45.3% (90% CI: 43.7%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.3%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 7.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.0%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.9%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.1%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 47.5% (90% CI: 39.6%-55.3%) win rate for white (107 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.5%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.3%-45.5%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 39.7% (90% CI: 37.8%-41.5%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.0%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch has a 32.5% (90% CI: 25.5%-39.8%) win rate for white (114 Lichess games). Draw rate is 17.7%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch is statistically balanced with a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.