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Analyzer

Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation

15K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation leaves Black at 48.0% — pick a better weapon.

The minimum advantage of -5.3% means this line underperforms at the selected level.

You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score48.0%Based on 15K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
40%48.0%55%
Range (90% confident): 47.4% – 48.7%
Min adv-5.3%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=15K
Outcome Distribution
4...d5
Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation
Analyzen=15K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.9%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation has a 48.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.4% and 48.7%), based on 15K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.7% win rate (102 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.0% win rate (272 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.8% win rate (704 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.0% win rate (1,506 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.5% win rate (2,488 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.1% win rate (3,698 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.0% win rate (3,288 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.5% win rate (2,444 games)
  • 2500+: 41.8% win rate (392 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (56%), worst in Bullet (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.5% win rate (34 games)
  • Bullet: 45.3% win rate (5,224 games)
  • Blitz: 45.5% win rate (7,418 games)
  • Rapid: 45.4% win rate (2,122 games)
  • Classical: 55.9% win rate (96 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (69 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (71 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (149 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (50 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (231 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (348 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (122 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (405 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (802 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (282 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (648 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,389 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (413 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 72.1% expected score (28 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (1,029 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (1,970 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (654 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (35 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (1,143 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (1,654 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (470 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (1,357 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (964 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (121 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (315 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (73 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System
49.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation
48.4%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 15K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 50.8% win rate for white (3.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.9%) outperforms Classical (37.4%) by 13.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 37.0%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 102 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 44.9%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 272 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 46.2%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 704 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 48.3%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.1%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.4%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.1%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.1%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 47.8%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 392 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-52.1%) win rate for white (5.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.9%) win rate for white (7.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.2%-50.7%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.