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Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation

15K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.0%

40%55%
Floor47.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.7%.

Measured over 15K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 15K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
15K
Best context
50.8% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
45.5% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
95.1%
Draws
4.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.1% at 0-999, 38.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (69 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (71 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (149 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (50 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (231 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (348 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (122 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (405 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (802 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (282 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (648 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,389 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (413 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 72.1% expected score (28 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (1,029 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (1,970 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (654 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (35 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (1,143 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (1,654 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (470 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (1,357 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (964 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (121 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (315 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (73 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System
49.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation
48.4%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation scores 48.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.4% and 48.7% — from 15K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
15K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate?

Playing the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation, Black wins 45.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 15K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 49.9% (2.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.3% in Blitz (7.4K games) against 48.2% in Rapid (2.1K games).

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 51.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 102 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 272 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 704 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.5%, draws 4.8% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.1%, draws 5.1% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.0%, draws 5.4% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.5%, draws 5.8% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 41.8%, draws 6.2% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 392 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.5%, draws 5.5% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.4%, draws 5.6% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Counterthrust Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.5% of its games and loses 49.5%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.