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Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation

14K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.1%Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 53.8%Based on 14K games
0%53.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 53.8%
Outcome Distribution
50.0%6.2%43.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Nxd5
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation
Analyzen=14K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.2%

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 53.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.4% and 53.8%), based on 14K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.0% win rate (40 games)
  • 1000-1199: 62.2% win rate (91 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.2% win rate (296 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.7% win rate (657 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.0% win rate (1,477 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.7% win rate (2,498 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.8% win rate (3,325 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.1% win rate (4,324 games)
  • 2500+: 52.3% win rate (1,051 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (58%), worst in Classical (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 57.9% win rate (8 games)
  • Bullet: 50.7% win rate (3,677 games)
  • Blitz: 49.7% win rate (8,250 games)
  • Rapid: 50.1% win rate (1,717 games)
  • Classical: 45.6% win rate (107 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (21 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 62.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 61.9% expected score (28 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 69.4% expected score (50 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (90 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (145 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (59 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (183 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (367 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (102 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (323 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (874 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (257 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 64.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (452 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (1,565 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (440 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (39 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (693 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (2,115 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (485 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (1,352 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (2,622 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (339 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (535 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (497 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 73.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation
51.0%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense
49.3%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense
49.9%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation
49.4%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation
50.1%
Analyze Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 14K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation perform best?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 62.2% win rate for white (91 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.7%) outperforms Classical (45.6%) by 5.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 93.8 (decisive), meaning 93.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 43.5%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 296 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 48.5%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 657 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.0%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.4%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 49.8%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 9.0% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.4%-52.1%) win rate for white (3.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.6%) win rate for white (8.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.1%-52.1%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 37.8%-53.5%) win rate for white (107 Lichess games). Draw rate is 15.2%.

Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.