Neo-Grünfeld Defense
10 variations · 1.0M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · Overall
53.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 1.0M games at this level and clock.
A strong opening choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 6.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.0M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — under 500 games here
- Games in this context
- 1.0M
- Best context
- 59.8% at 2500+ Rapid
- Worst context
- 46.9% at 2000-2199 UltraBullet
- Variations measured
- 10
- Average game length
- 38 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
White · OverallThese are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 57.2%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (875 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (1,485 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (434 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.8% expected score (19 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (2,996 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (4,214 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (1,409 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (71 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (6,985 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (8,867 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (3,017 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (114 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (252 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (13,815 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (20,792 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (6,165 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (350 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (554 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (26,106 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (43,754 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (10,655 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (610 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (695 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (49,200 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (91,477 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (17,890 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (1,171 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (701 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (94,352 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (145,265 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (20,708 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (952 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.6% expected score (256 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (178,742 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (128,637 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (13,472 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (314 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (27 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (106,783 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (17,801 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.8% expected score (804 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (45 games)
10 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense family scores 53.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.2% and 53.3% — from 1.0M Lichess games across 10 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.0M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense win rate?
Across the Neo-Grünfeld Defense's 10 variations, White wins 50.0%, draws 6.4% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 1.0M rated games from Lichess.
How many Neo-Grünfeld Defense variations are there?
10 Neo-Grünfeld Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the Neo-Grünfeld Defense perform best?
The Neo-Grünfeld Defense family performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.4% (125K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.2% in Blitz (462K games) against 52.7% in Rapid (75K games).
How sharp is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense?
Neo-Grünfeld Defense games are 93.6% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 38 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense a good opening family?
The Neo-Grünfeld Defense family is good for White overall. Across its games, White wins 50.0% and loses 43.5%. Results differ between its 10 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.