Neo-Grünfeld Defense

10 variations · 1.0M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Neo-Grünfeld Defense gives White a 53.3% expected score — a strong opening choice.

With a minimum advantage of 6.4%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.

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Rating

Time

White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 53.2% – 53.3%Aggregated from 10 variations

0%53.3%100%

Range (90% confident): 53.2% – 53.3%

ContextOverall · n=1.0M

Outcome Distribution

50.0%6.4%43.5%

Win

Draw

Loss

No position data

Neo-Grünfeld Defense

Variations10

Games (Context)1.0M

Avg Length38 moves

Draw Rate6.4%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall

#1Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical VariationTop Pick

1.d4 Nf6 2.Nf3 g6 3.g3 Bg7 4.Bg2 O-O 5.O-O d5 6.c4

Min adv +7.4% · n=103K

54.0%

#2Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation

1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nf3 Bg7 4.g3 O-O 5.Bg2 d5 6.cxd5 Nxd5 7.O-O

Min adv +6.5% · n=63K

53.6%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

Snapshot

Overall, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense family has a 53.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.2% and 53.3%), aggregated from 10 variations and 1.0M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 49% → 51%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~51%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (875 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (1,485 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (434 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.8% expected score (19 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (2,996 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (4,214 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (1,409 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (71 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (6,985 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (8,867 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (3,017 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (114 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (252 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (13,815 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (20,792 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (6,165 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (350 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (554 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (26,106 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (43,754 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (10,655 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (610 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (695 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (49,200 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (91,477 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (17,890 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (1,171 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (701 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (94,352 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (145,265 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (20,708 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (952 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.6% expected score (256 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (178,742 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (128,637 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (13,472 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (314 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (27 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (106,783 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (17,801 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.8% expected score (804 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (45 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (10)

Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation169K games

Winning54.0%

Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation103K games

Winning54.0%

Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation63K games

Winning53.6%

Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3132K games

Winning53.2%

Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense367K games

Winning53.1%

Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g314K games

Winning53.2%

Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation14K games

Winning53.1%

Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense114K games

Winning52.3%

Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation26K games

Balanced52.4%

Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Goglidze Attack22K games

Balanced52.5%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense win rate?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense family has a 50.0% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.1%) win rate for white, aggregated from 10 variations and 1.0M rated games from Lichess.

How many Neo-Grünfeld Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 10 Neo-Grünfeld Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Neo-Grünfeld Defense perform best?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense family performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.9% win rate for white (125K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.7%) outperforms Classical (47.9%) by 2.8% across all Neo-Grünfeld Defense variations.

How sharp is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense?

Neo-Grünfeld Defense games are 93.6% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 38 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense a good opening family?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense family is statistically favors white overall with a 50.0% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.1%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 10 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.