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Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3

132K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.2%Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 53.4%Based on 132K games
0%53.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 53.4%
Outcome Distribution
50.8%4.8%44.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...d5
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3
Analyzen=132K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.8%

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 has a 53.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.0% and 53.4%), based on 132K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.2% win rate (1,169 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.3% win rate (3,338 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.9% win rate (7,056 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.1% win rate (13,986 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.0% win rate (23,149 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.9% win rate (30,440 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.3% win rate (27,613 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.7% win rate (20,822 games)
  • 2500+: 52.8% win rate (4,388 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.1% win rate (448 games)
  • Bullet: 50.7% win rate (53,716 games)
  • Blitz: 51.0% win rate (62,016 games)
  • Rapid: 50.5% win rate (15,109 games)
  • Classical: 52.2% win rate (672 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (383 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (615 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (170 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (1,046 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (1,717 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (560 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (2,366 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (3,465 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (1,170 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (40 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (73 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (4,474 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (7,108 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (2,199 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (132 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (100 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (7,479 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (12,039 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (3,333 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (198 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (119 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (10,295 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (16,002 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (3,815 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (209 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.5% expected score (99 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (11,206 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (13,345 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (2,884 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 68.0% expected score (79 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (28 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (12,638 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.2% expected score (7,207 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 62.5% expected score (944 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (3,829 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 63.3% expected score (518 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 72.6% expected score (34 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation
51.0%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense
49.3%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense
49.9%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation
49.4%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation
50.1%
Analyze Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 132K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 perform best?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.7% win rate for white (21K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (51.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (51.1%) by -0.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 has a 47.2% (90% CI: 44.8%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 has a 50.3% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 7.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 has a 52.8% (90% CI: 51.5%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 has a 51.1% (90% CI: 47.2%-54.9%) win rate for white (448 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.0%) win rate for white (54K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.3%) win rate for white (62K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.2%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 has a 52.2% (90% CI: 49.0%-55.4%) win rate for white (672 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 a good opening?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 is statistically favors white with a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.