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Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense

367K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.9%

40%55%
Floor46.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.0%.

Measured over 367K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 6.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 367K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
367K
Best context
52.6% at 1200-1399 Rapid
Worst context
42.2% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
39 moves
Games that end decisively
93.6%
Draws
6.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.6% at 0-999, 45.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (148 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (221 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (45 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (690 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (770 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (199 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (1,764 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (1,829 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (532 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (44 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (3,842 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (5,448 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (1,396 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (61 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 37.2% expected score (112 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (8,095 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (14,284 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (2,942 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.3% expected score (137 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.6% expected score (137 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (17,487 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (37,391 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (6,359 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (370 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (129 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (35,570 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (64,158 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (8,561 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (386 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 47.4% expected score (56 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (62,670 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (48,479 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (5,317 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (132 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (30,849 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (5,684 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.4% expected score (295 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (25 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation
49.7%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3
50.8%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense
49.3%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation
51.0%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation
50.1%
Analyze Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense scores 46.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.8% and 47.0% — from 367K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
367K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense win rate?

Playing the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense, Black wins 43.7%, draws 6.4% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 367K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense perform best?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 48.2% (11K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 47.2% in Blitz (178K games) against 48.2% in Rapid (26K games).

How sharp is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense has a sharpness score of 93.6 (decisive), meaning 93.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 414 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.1%, draws 5.4% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 62K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.2%, draws 6.4% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 109K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.0%, draws 7.0% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 117K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.8%, draws 8.5% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 46.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 500 Lichess games.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 43.7%, draws 5.2% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 161K Lichess games.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.6%, draws 7.1% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 178K Lichess games.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 44.0%, draws 8.4% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 40.7%, draws 14.3% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.

Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense a good opening?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.7% of its games and loses 49.9%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.