Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense
114K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.0%.
Measured over 114K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 114K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 114K
- Best context
- 49.2% at 1800-1999 Rapid
- Worst context
- 43.3% at 1400-1599 Bullet
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.1%
- Draws
- 5.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 47.9% at 0-999, 50.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (93 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (192 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (73 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (356 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (488 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (227 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (849 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (969 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (403 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 64.5% expected score (33 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (1,483 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (2,315 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (749 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (38 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.1% expected score (76 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (2,699 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (4,573 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (1,229 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (73 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (95 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (4,791 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (8,904 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (1,929 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (131 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (78 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (9,565 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (14,747 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (1,942 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (101 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 31.4% expected score (20 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (19,628 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (16,306 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (1,301 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 23.8% expected score (29 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (14,824 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (2,446 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (65 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense scores 47.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.5% and 48.0% — from 114K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 114K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate?
Playing the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense, Black wins 44.8%, draws 5.9% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 114K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense perform best?
The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 48.9% (37K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.0% in Blitz (51K games) against 48.6% in Rapid (7.9K games).
How sharp is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense?
The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 46.6%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 358 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 8.7K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.6%, draws 4.7% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.3%, draws 5.6% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.5%, draws 6.7% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 43.0%, draws 7.9% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 45.9%, draws 5.6% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 313 Lichess games.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.9%, draws 5.1% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 54K Lichess games.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.6%, draws 6.7% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 51K Lichess games.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.1%, draws 7.0% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 42.0%, draws 9.5% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 393 Lichess games.
Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense a good opening?
The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.8% of its games and loses 49.3%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.